How about one more polling post for the week? We'll make it the latest in our series of post-conviction analysis of public opinion, as more high-quality data comes in. So far, my view has been (1) it's too soon to tell, but early indications don't look too significant either way, then (2) it's not looking like much of a change, then (3) yeah, it's really looking like nothing has changed. Let's pile another data point onto the growing body of evidence. A new Monmouth poll contains some interesting and somewhat conflicting findings on Trump's New York trial. A majority of voters believe it's at least somewhat likely that the charges against the former president were politically-motivated, but by double digits, a plurality of those same voters support the guilty verdict reached in the case. Fifty-seven percent of respondents buy into the 'political charges' narrative, including 60 percent of independents. But forty-seven percent still favor the conviction, with independents breaking that direction by 12 percentage points. (My view is that the charges were flagrantly political, and that the conviction is a disgraceful travesty).
A substantial number of people clearly are willing to concede that the case against Trump was political in nature, but are still comfortable with its outcome. Logically, one might imagine that such sentiments might therefore tip public opinion against Trump in his rematch against President Biden. But according to this same data set, that's not the case. Monmouth's headline for their numbers is, "Trials Have Little Impact on 2024 Race." I suppose 'zero' technically counts as 'little:'
Monmouth: 🇺🇲 2024 GE [definitely + probably will vote for...]
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 13, 2024
🟥 Trump: 44% [=]
🟦 Biden: 43% [=]
• Double haters: Biden 28-19%
• Independents: Trump 43-36%
[+/- change vs April]
—
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP: 48%
🟦 DEM: 45%
—
% who are very + somewhat enthusiastic about… pic.twitter.com/dZajQhv8ba
Back in April, before the verdict, Trump led this head-to-head by one point, 44-43. In June, after the verdict, Trump leads this head-to-head...by one point, 44-43. Absolutely frozen. Unlike the Pennsylvania survey we broke down yesterday, Biden leads among the 'double disapprovers' in this poll by nine points (much closer than in 2020, when Biden cleaned up, but still not as favorable to Trump as some other polling on this). Nevertheless, Trump is ahead with independents by a 43-36 margin (Biden carried this group by 13 points in 2020, per exit polling). Within Monmouth's numbers, independent voters support the guilty verdict against Trump by 12 points, but favor him over Biden by seven points. Go figure. The GOP leads on the 'generic ballot' by three points overall, and Biden's net personal favorability is several notches lower than Trump's. That's no outlier:
Recommended
.@FiveThirtyEight average: President Biden Favorability Rating
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 13, 2024
Favorable: 38.8%
Unfavorable: 56.1%
Net: -17.3% (an all-time low)
—
Biden's Net Favorability Trends
Nov. 18, 2022: -7.8%
June 13, 2023: -10.9%
June 13, 2024: -17.3%
Trump's net favorability avg: -12.3%
—… pic.twitter.com/CJ5sK8RW9R
Here's a different national poll showing a bit of a surge for Trump, who is back in the lead:
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Reuters/Ipsos
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 13, 2024
🟥 Trump: 41% [+2]
🟦 Biden: 39% [-2]
🟨 RFK Jr: 10%
Net 4 point swing towards Trump
[+/- change vs June 1]
—
538: #17 (2.8/3.0) | 903 RV | 6/10-11https://t.co/V33KSSWfp1 pic.twitter.com/I6SThW8gEM
I'll leave you with big-picture sentiments from two data gurus -- one right-leaning, the other left-leaning:
Taking a step back, a felony conviction has moved the polls by 1-2 points, likely with decaying impacts over time.
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) June 13, 2024
The countless journalists who write articles about whether such and such trivial thing will move numbers literally no longer have a purpose in life.
The election's already gone on so long that some of you are overthinking it. Biden has a 37% approval rating. He's really unpopular. Mostly because of his age, inflation and a secular trend toward pessimism. However, he has a decent chance because Trump is also really unpopular.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 13, 2024
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