Tipsheet

Another Poll Shows Big Trouble for Biden

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  June 14, 2024 12:01 PM

How about one more polling post for the week?  We'll make it the latest in our series of post-conviction analysis of public opinion, as more high-quality data comes in.  So far, my view has been (1) it's too soon to tell, but early indications don't look too significant either way, then (2) it's not looking like much of a change, then (3) yeah, it's really looking like nothing has changed.  Let's pile another data point onto the growing body of evidence.  A new Monmouth poll contains some interesting and somewhat conflicting findings on Trump's New York trial.  A majority of voters believe it's at least somewhat likely that the charges against the former president were politically-motivated, but by double digits, a plurality of those same voters support the guilty verdict reached in the case.  Fifty-seven percent of respondents buy into the 'political charges' narrative, including 60 percent of independents.  But forty-seven percent still favor the conviction, with independents breaking that direction by 12 percentage points.  (My view is that the charges were flagrantly political, and that the conviction is a disgraceful travesty).  

A substantial number of people clearly are willing to concede that the case against Trump was political in nature, but are still comfortable with its outcome.  Logically, one might imagine that such sentiments might therefore tip public opinion against Trump in his rematch against President Biden.  But according to this same data set, that's not the case. Monmouth's headline for their numbers is, "Trials Have Little Impact on 2024 Race." I suppose 'zero' technically counts as 'little:'


Back in April, before the verdict, Trump led this head-to-head by one point, 44-43.  In June, after the verdict, Trump leads this head-to-head...by one point, 44-43.  Absolutely frozen.  Unlike the Pennsylvania survey we broke down yesterday, Biden leads among the 'double disapprovers' in this poll by nine points (much closer than in 2020, when Biden cleaned up, but still not as favorable to Trump as some other polling on this).  Nevertheless, Trump is ahead with independents by a 43-36 margin (Biden carried this group by 13 points in 2020, per exit polling).  Within Monmouth's numbers, independent voters support the guilty verdict against Trump by 12 points, but favor him over Biden by seven points.  Go figure.  The GOP leads on the 'generic ballot' by three points overall, and Biden's net personal favorability is several notches lower than Trump's.  That's no outlier:


Here's a different national poll showing a bit of a surge for Trump, who is back in the lead:


I'll leave you with big-picture sentiments from two data gurus -- one right-leaning, the other left-leaning:

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