President Joe Biden is mired in the mid-30's on overall job approval, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos national poll, which also found former President Donald Trump leading on most of the key issues tested. The wire service's write-up of its own survey noted that Biden's approval number "fell to its lowest level in almost two years, tying the lowest reading of his presidency in a warning sign for his reelection effort." Beyond that top line result, the incumbent also trails in voter preference metrics on three of the four topics measured -- and on two of the top three issues voters ranked in terms of importance, Trump's advantage is in the double digits.
Here's my summary of the data:
Reuters Poll finds Biden's overall job approval at 36%, his lowest level in roughly two years.
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) May 21, 2024
On issues:
Economy Trump +10
Immigration Trump +17
Foreign conflicts/terrorism Trump +7
'Political Extremism' Biden +4https://t.co/EOcEb5HgNJ
The aforementioned Reuters piece is available here. The poll comes on the heels of some additional numbers pointing in a similarly bleak direction for the Biden campaign:
🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL: Harvard/Harris
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 20, 2024
🟥 Trump 49% [+1]
🟦 Biden 43% [=]
—
With leans
🟥 Trump 53% [+1]
🟦 Biden 47% [-1]
Was Trump +2 in March
—
🟥 Trump 45% [=]
🟦 Biden 40% [-1]
🟨 RFK Jr. 14% [=]
—
[+/- change vs April]
—
Job approval
Presiden Biden: 45-54 (-9)
Trump recalled:… pic.twitter.com/ue1tQUfDHY
In this data set, Trump leads Biden by six points head-to-head, and also by six points when leaners are included. In an expanded field, Trump's edge is nearly identical, at five percentage points. Biden's struggles in the Harvard/Harris poll are fueled by a distinct disadvantage among independent voters, who side with Trump by 10-12 point margin. Left-leaning political stats guru Nate Silver, meanwhile, is warning liberals to beware of analyses purporting to show polling momentum for Biden at the moment. Why? The race is actually remarkably stable, in a way that doesn't appear beneficial to the incumbent:
There are accounts on here that will cherrypick polls to make it seem like things are constantly getting better for Biden. But this is the reason polling averages were invented and the fact is they're just not, or at least not much. pic.twitter.com/1CwKmmXBSz
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 21, 2024
It's that stability, coupled with data from 2020, that led me to examine this question earlier in the week. Finally, in light of Team Biden's insistence that they don't believe the negative polls, I'll leave you with Senate Democrats in battlegrounds hopping aboard that same train:
NEW: Senate Democrats in swing states don’t agree with the polls that show Biden down in battlegrounds, either.
— Stephen Neukam (@stephen_neukam) May 19, 2024
Top Dems tell us the polls don’t reflect reality, with Biden is down in almost every swing state in recent polling.
More w/ @StefWKight https://t.co/d4ReQ7k32v
If they're actually convinced the polls are wrong and Biden is winning, may I humbly suggest that they put that supposed belief into practice and aggressively, proudly campaign alongside Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in their states over the next five months? Any takers? Who wouldn't want to clasp hands with this?
JUST IN: President Joe Biden ends his speech by remembering when he signed the ‘Pacanalalalac’ Act into law.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) May 21, 2024
Very inspiring.
"Let me close with this. After I signed the Pacanalalanalac Act into law..." Biden said.
"I handed the pen that I signed it wiszzfschuna the most person… pic.twitter.com/0pv4G0sjho
