We will soon have lots of Super Tuesday data to pore over, and the overwhelming likelihood is that both Donald Trump and Joe Biden will emerge from this major round of primary balloting with commanding-to-insurmountable leads in their respective nominating contests. On Sunday we analyzed a huge batch of new national polling, all of which tells roughly the same story: Trump narrowly but unmistakably leads Biden right now -- as the incumbent is widely viewed as both too old for the job, as well as a failure on top issues. Within his party, the former problem is unique to Biden. The latter challenge is not, which is why the president's running mate is also deeply unpopular. As we saw in recent battleground state polls, Vice President Harris is performing even worse against Trump than Biden is:
btw, in that NYT/Siena poll, Kamala Harris' favorable rating is (36/55) -- with 'very unfavorable' views (38 percent) eclipsing her combined very/somewhat favorable score. In a head-to-head with Trump, she's down worse than Biden, 47-41.
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) March 4, 2024
Some on the Left are raging against the Times, dismissing these numbers, and blasting the unfairness of it all. They are also feverishly "unskewing" the findings, as more than a few conservatives tried to do in the 2012 cycle. Many of us remember, painfully, how that turned out. Left-leaning election data gurus Nate Silver and Dave Wasserman are deluging those takes with ice cold water:
It is completely pointless to argue about the arcane details of one particular poll when *all the polls say the same thing, more or less*. Now, there can be systematic polling errors, but they are hard to predict (keep in mind that polls badly underrated Trump in 2016 and 2020).
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 4, 2024
In 2020, the final 538 polling average had Biden +8.4 pts, RCP average had Biden +7.2. Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 pts, but the Electoral College tipping point state by just 0.6 pts.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 4, 2024
Eight months out, today’s 538 Biden approval: 39/56. Today’s RCP average: Trump +2.3.
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They're not arguing that this election is all but over -- eight months is a very long time -- nor are they suggesting that Trump is a lock to over-perform his polling levels in a general election. They are saying, however, that at this moment, Trump is plainly in the lead, while also noting that he has over-performed national (and state-level) polling in the past. Yes, dynamics could change. Yes, Trump could fall behind and lose. Yes, Biden and Democrats could outperform their polls, as they've done a number of times recently. It would be naive to confidently argue otherwise. But the current snapshots on public opinion should be, and simply are, very concerning for the Left. And again, it's not just about Biden's widely-perceived infirmity. It's about a prevailing sense that he's a bad president, doing a bad job, pursing bad polices -- and that the country is worse off because of it:
Sure, Biden is old. But it's not JUST that he is old. These perceptions are baked in hard, and they wouldn't change with Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. https://t.co/gj5bQ69Oq3
— Jeff Blehar is *BOX OFFICE POISON* (@EsotericCD) March 3, 2024
That's why a significant chunk of 2020 Biden supporters have told the New York Times' pollster that they aren't just 'undecided' or perhaps inclined to sit this next election out (which would be a problem unto itself for the Biden campaign); they're flipping over to the challenger and former president:
Yes, 10% of Biden 2020 voters now say they're going to vote for Trump in 2024, as compared to <1% of Trump 2020 voters who now say they're going to vote for Biden. They are switching their votes and not just undecided. https://t.co/13BB64wx7c
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 4, 2024
I'll leave you with this:
But this is what happens when an 81-year-old guy chooses to run for another term, and clearly can’t handle anything resembling the traditional presidential schedule.https://t.co/L7NF2ccY2Z pic.twitter.com/N8Zqf0THp0
— Jim Geraghty (@jimgeraghty) March 4, 2024
Also, how on earth did this White House -- especially in light of the inflation polling showcased above -- allow the conservative group Americans for Prosperity (with whom I'm affiliated) to buy the url for Bidenomics.com? At the very least, they should have figured out a way to lock it down to prevent opponents from accessing it and further exploiting damaging public sentiment. They didn't:
Check it out now at https://t.co/6rT3exx6jf https://t.co/VfHrEEw9JJ
— Americans for Prosperity (@AFPhq) March 4, 2024
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