You know, I think they are. I've even made a handshake bet that they will. But I'll confess to questioning my end of that wager more than ever, after the events of Thursday afternoon and evening. Even before the Special Counsel report arrived, the president had been spending the week mistaking European political leaders for their deceased predecessors. Then the report detonated. It announced that the DOJ would not pursue charges against Joe Biden over his unlawful conduct, despite evidence that he "willfully retained and disclosed classified materials after his vice presidency," including items that were marked highly classified.
One of the explicitly-stated reasons given for this exercise in prosecutorial discretion was the Special Counsel's belief that at trial, “Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did in our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory.” The document referred to Biden's "diminished faculties and faulty memory," noting that he couldn't recall when his eldest son died, and struggled on consecutive days to remember which years he'd served as Vice President (2009-2017). The Special Counsel has more or less directly asserted that the sitting President of the United States, who is seeking another four-year term, is too mentally impaired to stand trial.
Given the widespread public perception that Biden is too old for the job, as reflected in virtually all polling, this was a devastating development for Biden's White House and campaign. His handlers may very well have preferred an outright declaration of intent to file charges after Biden leaves office to this; an official record of Biden's mental unfitness is more politically harmful. Team Biden's reaction was one of panicked incoherence, lashing out at the Special Counsel, and suggesting that Biden had forgotten core facts about his life because he was preoccupied with an emergency abroad at the time. The notion that the president couldn't perform properly or access memories adequately because he was stressed out over a foreign crisis is quite the opposite of reassuring spin. But that's what they went with, because it's all they had. As this unfolded, I tweeted, "if there is going to be a moment for the Dems to throw Biden’s re-election campaign overboard, this report is it."
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Then came the press conference.
The president went in front of the cameras and recited a statement that was very similar to something he'd said hours earlier at an event in Virginia. He commented at some length on his Justice Department's active case against his leading opponent, which seems rather problematic from a norms perspective. He grew indignant. He seethed at the Special Counsel in his case. Then he fielded questions. It went poorly. He repeatedly blamed his staff for various improprieties. He was angry. He asserted that his memory was "fine," then moments later, confused Egypt with Mexico. He flashed his temper in denying that the Special Counsel had accused him of passing classified materials to the ghostwriter of his memoir. He repeated the denial twice. He also stated that none of the classified items he unlawfully retained were "high classified." Double fact check:
Biden just angrily denied that he shared classified material with his ghostwriter (also claiming the Special Counsel “did not say” that he did) & asserted none of the materials he improperly retained were “high classified.”
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) February 9, 2024
This is page 3 of the Special Counsel’s report: pic.twitter.com/CEwaWNY51X
This looked like a man fighting for his political life—and losing. I'd guess that the reason his communications team has been flailing so wildly is because they understand how damagingly all of this reinforces certain realities they've been fighting to downplay or deny. But they know the problem is real, as betrayed by their own actions:
(Biden’s staff shares the special counsel’s assessment of POTUS’ acuity, which is why they treat him the way they do, and make decisions like declining the Super Bowl interview)
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) February 8, 2024
Back to the question at hand: Are Democrats really going to re-nominate this man? I posed a similar question about Republicans a few weeks ago. Thursday's events thrust the incumbent's party into a major gut check moment. By the looks of it, Biden has no intention of going anywhere. I'd bet that Biden himself insisted on traipsing out there last night, likely over objections from advisors. He's ornery and stubborn and won't be shunted aside easily, even if that's what many senior Democrats believe to be in the best interests of the party. He's president and he wants to stay president. That's a lot to overcome. But let's say he could be persuaded to step away ahead of the convention, then what?
Kamala Harris is extraordinarily unpopular, even more so than Biden, according to multiple surveys. The spectacle of trying to bypass the sitting Vice President -- a black female, no less, in a coalition addicted to identity politics -- would risk shattering their coalition. There is no other obvious (or even compellingly plausible) heir apparent. Yes, including Gavin Newsom. And because another popular fantasy draft pick often comes up in these conversations, Michelle Obama is widely reported to want zero part of electoral politics moving forward. This is going to be a wild cycle, unlike any other, so all predictions come with asterisks. But mechanically, it will be very hard for Democrats to replace Joe Biden as their standard-bearer, particularly because he quite clearly does not want to be replaced. And if they somehow did persuade him to withdraw, the ensuing internecine bloodletting in pursuit of power would threaten to move through the party like a destructive, Category Five political hurricane -- all in the middle of an election year.
I suspect many Democrats are anxiously muttering amongst themselves about The Biden Problem right now, more so than ever. But they know their options are limited, and time is running out. Maybe they'll pull a Torricelli and choreograph a dramatic maneuver to eject Biden, with or without his cooperation. They'll probably end up riding their incumbent horse into the Chicago convention and beyond, white-knuckling the next nine months, hoping for the best. I'll leave you with this:
Overwhelming majorities of voters take the half-empty view. Do you know how hard it is to get 75% of Americans to agree on any political question? https://t.co/9aqpDW39ef pic.twitter.com/V0NSSd094C
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 9, 2024
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