A follow-up to our 'panic button' post from last week, featuring a New York Times story about a growing disconnect between Democratic Party elites and many of their voters. The subject of the discord? The President of the United States and his re-election campaign. Senior Democrats are lined up full-bore behind Biden's effort, but a great many blue voters really aren't so sure if it is such a good idea. These voters are undoubtedly noticing some of the polling we've been covering, as well as Joe Biden's day-to-day performance. The party apparatus is charging forward, toward a 'four more years' Biden blitz. The base is wondering, more and more loudly, if they're making a grave mistake.
Here's how the Times frames it up:
As President Biden shifts his re-election campaign into higher gear, the strength of his candidacy is being tested by a striking divide between Democratic leaders, who are overwhelmingly unified behind his bid, and rank-and-file voters in the party who harbor persistent doubts about whether he is their best option. From the highest levels of the party on down, Democratic politicians and party officials have long dismissed the idea that Mr. Biden should have any credible primary challenger. Yet despite their efforts — and the president’s lack of a serious opponent within his party — they have been unable to dispel Democratic concerns about him that center largely on his age and vitality. The discord between the party’s elite and its voters leaves Democrats confronting a level of disunity over a president running for re-election not seen for decades.
The story, available here, says that party leaders insist the faithful will all coalesce again if and when Donald Trump is the GOP nominee, but rank-and-file voters aren't convinced. The "assurances have not tamped down worries about Mr. Biden from some top Democratic strategists and many of the party’s voters, who approve of his performance but worry that Mr. Biden, who will be 82 on Inauguration Day, may simply not be up for another four years — or even the exhausting slog of another election," the story says, also quoting James Carville gingerly noting that "voters don’t want this, and that’s in poll after poll after poll." There's an expanding gulf between the publicly-projected confidence and the behind-scenes expressions of concern that are growing in volume:
In quiet conversations and off-the-record gatherings, Democratic officials frequently acknowledge their worries about Mr. Biden’s age and sagging approval ratings. But publicly, they project total confidence about his ability to lead and win. Many party officials say that Mr. Biden is making a high-stakes bet that the power of incumbency, a good political environment for his party and the fact that Democrats generally like the president will eventually outweigh the blaring signs of concern from loyal supporters. Any discussion of an alternative is little more than a fantasy, they say, since challenging Mr. Biden would not only appear disloyal but would also most likely fail — and potentially weaken the president’s general-election standing. One Democratic voter who backed Mr. Biden in 2020, James Collier, an accountant in Houston, sees the situation slightly differently...“I think he’s a little — not a little — he’s a lot old,” Mr. Collier, 57, said. “I’m hoping he would in his own mind think, ‘I need to sit this out and let someone else do this.’”
Biden's campaign, to the extent that it exists, says everything is just fine. They claim concerns about Biden's age reflected in polling are fueled by media coverage, not actual misgivings from voters. That strikes me as deep denial. And they insist that poor approval ratings don't matter at this stage of the race. "President Biden is delivering results, his agenda is popular with the American people and we are mobilizing our winning coalition of voters well ahead of next year’s general election,” a spokesman told the Times. It's worth noting that in a recent national survey, nearly 60 percent of voters say Biden's policies -- the "popular agenda" the campaign is talking about -- have made things worse. This is another inauspicious number for the 'Bidenomics is working' crowd:
Nearly half of voters - and most independents - say they are worse off financially versus before the pandemic, far outpacing those who are better off. pic.twitter.com/wraVVauVJl
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) September 17, 2023
Some elected Democrats are starting to say out loud that just pointing at Trump and hoping everything else will work itself out is a huge risk, and could end up being a losing bet:
Lt. Gov. Austin Davis of Pennsylvania, who is Black and has issued public warnings about Mr. Biden’s standing with Black voters, said that simply casting the election as a referendum on Mr. Trump and his right-wing movement — as Mr. Biden’s campaign did in 2020 — would not be enough to energize the Democratic base. Mr. Davis has urged the White House to be more aggressive about highlighting the impact of Mr. Biden’s accomplishments, particularly with Black voters. “Everyone is kind of exhausted by the fight between Biden and Trump,” he said. “People really want to hear leaders talk about how they’re going to improve the lives of their families.” Other Democrats argue that Mr. Biden’s campaign must make clearer that the stakes are bigger than just the president.
We recently wrote about Biden's soft and deteriorating support among voters of color, which could prove a mortal threat against Democrats' grip on power. The notion that an anti-Trump campaign is a can't-lose proposition next year has been dramatically undermined by recent polling, nearly all of which shows Trump tied with Biden, or even ahead. A few recent additions to the pile:
Today, a potential rematch looks tight. Biden is down one point, and inside the margin of error, in a match-up with Donald Trump, whom he beat by seven million votes three years ago. https://t.co/SoCOaP0eaQ pic.twitter.com/oN3f9DIlTS
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) September 17, 2023
🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 14, 2023
PRES:
(R) Trump 48% (+2)
(D) Biden 46%
Independents
(R) Trump 46% (+10)
(D) Biden 36%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60% (+47)
DeSantis 13%
Ramaswamy 11%
Haley 5%
Pence 3%
Scott 3%
Christie 2%
——
Fox News (A-) | 09/09-12 | 1,012 RVhttps://t.co/XtKwsiFl8b pic.twitter.com/77JQpIE9eu
It's totally plausible that even a slight improvement in voters' perception of the economy, coupled with a relentless and expensive Trump-blasting campaign, will right the ship enough to pull things through for the Democrats. Polling on Trump individually is quite sour. Democrats could cobble their 2020 coalition back together to stop Trump again. It's quite possible, and probably more likely than not. But what if the economy sputters along, or even deteriorates? And it's not like people aren't aware of what they think of Trump? And when did Trump last get positive headlines from the mainstream press? It's been a deluge of negativity (some of it fully earned, of course) for months on end now. Despite all that, Trump is neck-and-beck with the unpopular incumbent. Restless Biden syndrome among Democrats is here and it's real -- but there is a window of opportunity to replace Biden that's closing in slow motion.
