Late yesterday afternoon, the news broke that Special Counsel David Weiss' office had informed the judge in the Hunter Biden case of its intent to secure a felony indictment against the president's son on firearms-related charges by September 29th at the earliest. The judge had set a Wednesday deadline for prosecutors to declare their intentions moving forward, following the high-profile implosion of a nearly-executed sweetheart plea deal in open court over the summer. That outrageous agreement was reportedly first altered after IRS whistleblowers came forward with their allegations, complicating prosecutors' alleged plan to let Biden off without a single guilty plea, even to a misdemeanor. The new version, hastily updated due to problematic political optics, then went up in smoke after the judge asked a simple question about future immunity provisions, sparking a disagreement between prosecutors and Hunter Biden's defense team.
It seems likely that the feds had indeed privately agreed to shockingly the generous terms Hunters lawyers were expecting, but were too embarrassed to confirm them publicly and in front of the presiding judge. The agreement collapsed. Following that explosive courtroom development, Attorney General Merrick Garland elevated Weiss (who had been the US Attorney at least nominally pursuing the case) to Special Counsel status, a move I viewed as dubious and cynical for various reasons. At the time, I wrote this:
Weiss should be regarded as a political actor whose overarching agenda in this entire matter seems to be accountability avoidance for anyone named Biden. Second, directly relatedly, it shows why elevating Weiss to special counsel status is such a farce. Based on what we've seen thus far, I've developed a theory on what is likely to come next...Having gotten 'caught' and embarrassed for a second time, Weiss will exercise his new authority to go a little bit harder at Hunter Biden (while still taking care to insulate 'the Big Guy), without fully throwing the book at him. Just as we saw after the IRS whistleblowers stepped forward, Weiss now needs to save some face, but his inclination to protect the Bidens to the greatest extent possible will likely remain intact. This is not generally the disposition of a prosecutor, but Weiss has repeatedly hampered and stymied his own investigation -- closing off key lines of inquiry, barring pursuit of certain witnesses and questions, disregarding serious evidence, allowing statues of limitation to expire on serious offenses, and of course green-lighting an outrageous plea deal. He is unfit to be the special counsel in this case.
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Was that a very jaded read on the situation? Yes. Was that cynicism warranted, given everything we've seen in this case thus far? Also yes, in my view. I will not rush to judgment here, but observers should approach the new indictment declaration very warily. The gun violation is said to be an open-and-shut case, among other low-hanging fruit. Some critics argue the "diversion" program Hunter Biden was initially offered in order to avoid prosecution was not applicable because Biden's actions rendered him ineligible for such a program. Once the deal was ostentatiously torn up -- thanks entirely to public scrutiny, as opposed to any accountability-minded fortitude by prosecutors -- it's not exactly a surprise that now-Special Counsel Weiss feels obligated to do something to restore some semblance of perceived rigor to the investigation he's been undermining for months. This announcement of intent to pursue a new indictment would very much fit that pattern.
Hunter Biden should obviously face consequences for any number of crimes he's committed, including an apparent felony that undermines background checks for gun purchases -- a system his father routinely harps on, demanding stricter provisions. But it's the tax and financial crimes and misconduct that strike closer to the heart of the Biden family enrichment scheme, which is the more meaningful and growing scandal. Some razzle-dazzle of a gun charge, absent any serious pursuit of illegal activity related to financial dealings and foreign agent non-disclosures, could easily be interpreted as a deliberate distraction. A diversion, if you will. The DOJ's ability to spare Hunter Biden any serious charges, while also protecting his father's political and legal standing, fell apart with the defunct plea deal. Hunter Biden may now get his wrist slapped quite a bit harder than everyone involved would have liked (defense and prosecution alike) because, essentially, they got caught.
But the real smoke would engulf the Biden family 'business,' and that related financial paper trail. If Weiss stops at a new gun charge -- look, a bright shiny object -- plus the tax misdemeanors already listed in the previous compact, that would strike me as yet another face-saving political exercise. Indeed, it could be interpreted as Weiss coming "a little bit harder at Hunter Biden (while still taking care to insulate 'the Big Guy)," while still serving the Biden DOJ's overriding "inclination to protect the Bidens to the greatest extent possible." In short, I recommend tapping the breaks on any premature celebrations over newfound "accountability," carefully scrutinizing the fine print of whatever might emerge in a forthcoming indictment, then watching to see whether or not the Special Counsel probe then effectively ends.
If the Weiss investigation proceeds as it has thus far, expect this sacrificial lamb move to be the extent of it. On the other hand, if Weiss suddenly feels liberated and empowered by his new status -- and gains an actual (heretofore undetected) appetite for aggressive investigation and prosecution into Hunter Biden, no matter where that may lead -- then stay tuned. Again, I'm withholding judgment for now, but suffice it to say that my bet would be on the former scenario being the likeliest, and I therefore have major doubts about the latter one. We'll see. Proceed with well-earned caution:
… @amyewalter asked a fair Q in response, so I briefly explained that I’m open to reevaluating if Weiss alters his MO up to this point, which I see as doing the bare minimum against Hunter while insulating Joe. New forthcoming charges = new bare minimum, politically, in my view: pic.twitter.com/i693ZJqQw6
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 7, 2023
In case you missed it, I'll leave you with House Republicans continuing their aggressive pursuit of the Biden family scandal in multiple ways:
NEW: .@CBSNews obtains letter to Hunter Biden legal team for records detailing contacts with DOJ over failed plea deal. @Jim_Jordan @RepJamesComer @RepJasonSmith argue privilege now void. Seeking comment Hunter Biden’s team. “Given that these disclosures have been made to two… pic.twitter.com/QjvGjDypx7
— Catherine Herridge (@CBS_Herridge) September 6, 2023
🚨 Update: Six new subpoenas have been issued by @GOPoversight for Secretary Mayorkas and other Biden Administration officials for obstructing the investigation into Hunter Biden—like tipping off Secret Service agents so Hunter could evade interviews from investigators.…
— Steve Scalise (@SteveScalise) September 5, 2023
“VP signed off on this” https://t.co/rqOIW3kiQD
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 6, 2023
That last email cited drives yet another nail in the coffin of the bogus claims that Joe Biden had no involvement whatsoever in Hunter's business dealings.
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