Yesterday we learned that Fox News posted big numbers for its inaugural presidential debate of the 2024 cycle, attracting nearly 13 million viewers on the news channel, plus an additional 1.7 million on the Fox Business simulcast. In context, that's very substantial audience, presenting a significant opportunity for the candidates on stage. We offered our analysis, drawing on the sentiment among right-leaning Wisconsin voters at a large Americans for Prosperity-hosted watch event, with this bottom line: "DeSantis and Haley may have gained some momentum, but the primary’s overall trajectory wasn’t noticeably altered, which is a win for the status quo…and therefore the far-ahead, no-show frontrunner." I also noted that among the gathered crowd, "by a show of hands, DeSantis maybe had a slight edge over anyone else on the 'who won?' question, with Haley and Ramaswamy running roughly even just behind the Florida Governor." I also referred to Ramaswamy's performance as "polarizing."
Based on an overnight Washington Post poll of Republicans, my assessment of the forum and the general feelings expressed in the room were, in fact, representative of the wider audience. According to the data, DeSantis was the overall victor of the exchange:
IPSOS/WP POLL: Who do you think performed best in the Republican primary debate? (R's, who watched the debate, n=775)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 24, 2023
DeSantis 29%
Ramaswamy 26%
Haley 15%
Pence 7%
Scott/Christie 4%
Burgum/Hutchinson 1%
Worst Performance
Christie 22%
Hutchinson 14%https://t.co/9Iihl0hubc pic.twitter.com/8vZoTo3ywW
DeSantis, then Ramaswamy, then Haley...then everyone else. Beyond that, it looks like those who clearly helped themselves the most were Florida's governor and South Carolina's former governor:
The debate clearly helped Haley and DeSantis and polarized views of Ramaswamy, whose unfavorables more than doubled.
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) August 24, 2023
Trump down. He lost ground by not being on stage. pic.twitter.com/Zxki5boDq2
Plus "polarized views" of Ramaswamy, you say? At least according to this survey, our sense of how the debate went was pretty spot on. As Katie highlighted, some of the post-debate reviews from persuadable GOP voters were favorable for DeSantis, who largely avoided any sparring, ignoring the handful of barbs directed at him. It redounded to his benefit:
🔥 BOOM! Fox News voter panel RAVES about @RonDeSantis debate performance.
— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) August 24, 2023
“He came across as charismatic” and “projected strength and confidence”
"He is the only one” who can beat the former president
“He showed what he’s done in Florida he can replicate for the country"
“He… pic.twitter.com/FldBMe2wUG
As we said, DeSantis, Haley and (and to a more mixed extend, Ramaswamy) helped their campaigns on Wednesday night. That being said, when I first saw the WaPo polling yesterday evening, I also offered a word of skepticism. I wrote that it was "interesting overnight polling, largely aligning with my initial analysis," but "I doubt a blip down for Trump is a big problem for him, given his large lead and all the attention he will re-gain tonight with his arrest/mugshot." I also noted, "if [Trump's apparent] slide is confirmed and continues, especially in IA, that's a different story." A few hours later, Trump's mugshot dropped and basically broke the internet. As of this morning, his first tweet (of his own mugshot) in well over two years had already blown past 100 million impressions on the platform:
https://t.co/MlIKklPSJT pic.twitter.com/Mcbf2xozsY
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 25, 2023
Trump didn't choose the day after the debate to be arrested and booked by accident. Less than 24 hours after the forum featuring the rest of the GOP field, and heading directly into prime time, he stole the spotlight right back. It's possible that the momentum for successful debaters translates in the near term, as more voters search for a Trump alternative. It's also very possible that the attention and reaction to that photograph once again plants Donald Trump at the epicenter of the political universe. I'll leave you with this, out of a critical battleground state:
🚨 PENNSYLVANIA 2024 POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 24, 2023
PRES:
Biden: 42% (+2)
Trump: 40%
Someone else: 16%
——
GOP PRES
Trump 39% (+18)
DeSantis 21%
Ramaswamy 9%
Scott 6%
Haley 5%
Pence 5%
——
Net Favs:
Shapiro: +30%
Casey: +9%
Biden: -18%
Trump: -30%
——@FandMPoll | RVs | 8/09-20 https://t.co/XqY8ea0YJk pic.twitter.com/Fd4bYpGMLj
Where do those "someone else" respondents ultimately migrate? To third party candidates, or to one of the major party nominees?
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