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Surge: Republicans Retake Lead on 2022 Generic Ballot

AP Photo/Susan Walsh

Do you remember?  The 28th day of September?  The RealClearPolitics average on the 2022 generic ballot has flipped back into red territory, with Republicans edging out to a fractional lead.  Democrats had made gains over the summer (which we analyzed just before Labor Day), shooting to a very slight advantage throughout much of this month, but now we're seeing another lead change.  

Whether it lasts or not is another question, but here's the updated data picture as of midday today:


You can track the trajectory here.  More twists and turns may await us over the final six weeks of the campaign, but in response to my own tweeted question above, it's entirely plausible that the prevailing political winds -- 'the fundamentals' of the cycle -- are again taking hold.  The president remains unpopular; not as unpopular as he once was, but still performing poorly, with approval in the high-30's to mid-40's, paired with solid majority disapproval.  The right track/wrong track number is underwater by nearly 40 points.  The economy is in poor shape, as additional warning signs flash:


And one of the few alleviations of Americans' pain has been moving back in the wrong direction.  The average cost of a gallon of gasoline has now increased for the last eight consecutive days, and Biden is back to warning against corporate greed from oil companies, a talking point he'd jettisoned for weeks, as prices fell:


The greed is suddenly back, you see.  Meanwhile, abortion (an issue Democrats have sought to capitalize on by distorting the truth, with Republicans largely failing to answer attacks) has been receding in potency:


This particular polling series has been unusually good for Democrats and bad for Democrats -- but it's latest data set shows, at least in this snapshot, a turning tide:


With similar turnout on both sides, a small red wave might result.  If turnout significantly favors the GOP (look at their advantage among the 'definitely will vote' group here), that wave will grow taller (see this effect at play in these Texas numbers published this week). I'll leave you with my commentary on how crime is a major concern on voters minds, creating a political problem for Democrats.  And they know it:

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