Do you remember? The 28th day of September? The RealClearPolitics average on the 2022 generic ballot has flipped back into red territory, with Republicans edging out to a fractional lead. Democrats had made gains over the summer (which we analyzed just before Labor Day), shooting to a very slight advantage throughout much of this month, but now we're seeing another lead change.
Whether it lasts or not is another question, but here's the updated data picture as of midday today:
Despite Selzer's (relative outlier) poll and another one showing D+2 among RVs (not LVs), Republicans have moved back ahead -- barely -- on the generic ballot. Are the 'fundamentals' reasserting themselves after Dems' modest summer surge? pic.twitter.com/rPwX0hwsPK
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 28, 2022
You can track the trajectory here. More twists and turns may await us over the final six weeks of the campaign, but in response to my own tweeted question above, it's entirely plausible that the prevailing political winds -- 'the fundamentals' of the cycle -- are again taking hold. The president remains unpopular; not as unpopular as he once was, but still performing poorly, with approval in the high-30's to mid-40's, paired with solid majority disapproval. The right track/wrong track number is underwater by nearly 40 points. The economy is in poor shape, as additional warning signs flash:
??The yield on the 10-year Treasury hits 4% for the first time in more than a decade, climbing at the fastest pace in FORTY YEARS. Mortgage rates headed to 7%+.??
— Dagen McDowell (@dagenmcdowell) September 28, 2022
The US 10 year rate just crossed above 4 percent. Mortgage rates comfortably exceed 7 percent. We are now in new financial territory.
— Lawrence H. Summers (@LHSummers) September 28, 2022
And one of the few alleviations of Americans' pain has been moving back in the wrong direction. The average cost of a gallon of gasoline has now increased for the last eight consecutive days, and Biden is back to warning against corporate greed from oil companies, a talking point he'd jettisoned for weeks, as prices fell:
.@POTUS Biden, speaking about Hurricane Ian at the top of the White House hunger conference, gives a stark warning for oil and gas companies:
— Justin Tasolides (@JTasTasTas) September 28, 2022
"Do not, let me repeat, do not use this as an excuse to raise gasoline prices or gouge the American people."https://t.co/BHpXCqazbk
The greed is suddenly back, you see. Meanwhile, abortion (an issue Democrats have sought to capitalize on by distorting the truth, with Republicans largely failing to answer attacks) has been receding in potency:
#3 issue from the Selzer/Grinnell College national poll on "major factor in deciding how you will vote" --
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) September 28, 2022
"What's happening in public schools" (70% ranked as top issue)... slightly ahead of abortion (67% ranked as top issue)https://t.co/zzDVX3ZX2u
For the first time since the Dobbs ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, Google searches for the economy and immigration have overtaken searches about abortion. https://t.co/iRyoquEnwV
— The Upshot (@UpshotNYT) September 27, 2022
This particular polling series has been unusually good for Democrats and bad for Democrats -- but it's latest data set shows, at least in this snapshot, a turning tide:
YouGov/Economist: 2022 Midterms
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 28, 2022
Generic Ballot (LV)
Republicans 47% (+1)
Democrats 46
Definitely will vote:
66% of Republicans (R+12)
54% of Democrats
Biden approval: Independents
Approve 30%
Disapprove 53%
The Economy: Independents
Approve 29%
Disapprove 59% pic.twitter.com/4v1in6E6Ay
With similar turnout on both sides, a small red wave might result. If turnout significantly favors the GOP (look at their advantage among the 'definitely will vote' group here), that wave will grow taller (see this effect at play in these Texas numbers published this week). I'll leave you with my commentary on how crime is a major concern on voters minds, creating a political problem for Democrats. And they know it:
Midterm Messaging: @guypbenson on how crime is becoming a major issue in the 2022 midterms #FoxNews #Midterms pic.twitter.com/ivQyR0rW7i
— The Guy Benson Show (@GuyBensonShow) September 27, 2022
