Last week, one of the smartest elections analysts I know -- Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics -- noted how many pollsters were still publishing 'registered voters' data, rather than applying a 'likely voters' screen. The latter category tends to be more useful and predictive as the election draws closer, and we are now approximately six weeks out from the midterms. Trende and others wondered why the pollsters were sticking with RV over LV numbers so deep into this cycle. It's an in-the-weeds critique, but it's a meaningful one:
I'm not convinced that Rs will get the same bump we usually expect as we switch to LV polls, but I really don't understand the heavy RV polling in late September.
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) September 22, 2022
There are only 2 LV polls in the RCP average at the moment -- both of them show a Republican lead on the generic ballot.
— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) September 22, 2022
If the GOP has a good night, many people will be justifiably confused why so many media pollsters kept putting out Registered Voter polls deep into September https://t.co/wb8Sygw0ju
It's possible that polling organizations remain spooked and baffled by previous errors, and aren't confident that they will apply accurate or representative limits to weed out non-likely voters. If their LV screens are too tight, they risk missing the mark on what the electorate will look like in November, rendering their top line numbers fairly useless. But the opposite is just as true, if not more problematic: If they're surveying a bunch of registered voters, and not narrowing down the voting pool to those who will probably actually cast ballots, they're presenting a different sort of distorted picture. Well, the Washington Post and ABC News' pollster dropped a new national survey yesterday that represents a clear departure from the 'Democratic momentum' storyline of the summer.
ABC/@washingtonpost generic-ballot poll: R+5 among likely voters (R+1 among registered voters) https://t.co/CeMTLJQn4Z pic.twitter.com/3vdpAUIqsK
— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) September 25, 2022
Among registered voters, Republicans clung to a one-point lead. Among likely voters, the red advantage bounced out to five points. As you can see, President Biden's job approval rating has slumped back into the high 30's in this poll, as well. He's in pretty bad shape, across the board:
ABC/WP POLL: Do you Approve or Disapprove of President Biden?
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 25, 2022
Overall 39/55
Dem: 86/8
GOP: 9/88
Indie: 30/59
Men: 37/56
Women: 42/49
White,College: 47/49
White,Non-college: 25/66
Black: 62/28
Hispanic: 45/47
18-39: 33/54
40-64: 42/52
908 RV | 09/18-21 https://t.co/2K6UNbkwqr
Another elections analyst, Jay Cost, thinks this one lands with a boom:
ABC/WaPo is the only poll that I've ever seen shift the conversation. This one is gonna turn some heads. https://t.co/M4ZddAcOWe
— ?????? ???????? (@JayCostTWS) September 25, 2022
On the issues, the WaPo/ABC poll finds that 84 percent of Americans say the economy is a top concern as they consider their votes (76 percent say the same on inflation). And by a 50-point margin (24/74), they call the economy under Biden "not so good" or "poor," as opposed to "good" or "excellent." Republicans hold big leads on several of the very top issues:
?? Congressional Democrats have a toxic Biden problem…
— Nathan Brand (@NathanBrandWA) September 25, 2022
Joe Biden’s Job Approval:
39% approve
53% disapprove
On the most important issues, voters back Republicans:
Economy R+16
Inflation R+19
Crime R+14 https://t.co/I0kF2k2QFY
Democrats are ahead on handling abortion, a phenomenon I addressed at some length last week, but as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie explained on ABC News' Sunday morning show (using the network's own polling data to make his point), the issue may not be cleanly cutting in the Democrats' favor:
GOV. CHRISTIE: "84% of the voters say the economy is their top issue; only 62% say abortion...what our poll is showing is that the pro-life people are more motivated by the abortion issue to vote in these midterms than the pro-choice people are." pic.twitter.com/PWg1TMLYbg
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 25, 2022
And then there's this:
??
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) September 25, 2022
“Among those living in congressional districts that are rated as at least somewhat competitive by ABC’s FiveThirtyEight (neither solid Republican nor solid Democratic), registered voters favor Republican candidates by a wide 55-34%”
https://t.co/quri5akhlI
I don't expect swing districts to slant rightward quite this heavily, and this represents a small sample size -- but if this survey's major takeaways don't end up looking like outliers in retrospect, it would seem as though assertions about the red wave's demise may have been premature. I'll leave you with this, which once again illustrates a polling phenomenon we've been covering in recent years. There's no guarantee that the data will once again look way off, with reality being more Republican-friendly than surveys, but this is hard to ignore:
Polls have recently overestimated Democratic performance in competitive Senate elections:https://t.co/kEqYKGApom pic.twitter.com/KjFYWK1wMv
— Matt Grossmann (@MattGrossmann) September 23, 2022
And yes, the 'likely voters' polls are looking pretty strong for Republicans overall, including another one (CBS News) in which they're leading, also out yesterday. Remember, in recent history, slightly trailing on the generic ballot has meant good news for the GOP:
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Polling among LIKELY voters (09/07-21)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 25, 2022
ABC/WP
GOP — 51% (+5)
Dem — 46%
CBS/YouGov
GOP — 46% (+1)
Dem — 45%
McLaughlin (R)
GOP — 48% (+4)
Dem — 44%
Data for Progress (D)
GOP — 47% (+2)
Dem — 45%
Trafalgar Group
GOP — 48% (+6)
Dem — 42%Y pic.twitter.com/AzOgBosgMc
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