Tipsheet

Wave Watch: Why a Blockbuster New WaPo/ABC Poll Is a Midterm Nightmare for Democrats

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  September 26, 2022 10:05 AM

Last week, one of the smartest elections analysts I know -- Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics -- noted how many pollsters were still publishing 'registered voters' data, rather than applying a 'likely voters' screen.  The latter category tends to be more useful and predictive as the election draws closer, and we are now approximately six weeks out from the midterms.  Trende and others wondered why the pollsters were sticking with RV over LV numbers so deep into this cycle.  It's an in-the-weeds critique, but it's a meaningful one:


It's possible that polling organizations remain spooked and baffled by previous errors, and aren't confident that they will apply accurate or representative limits to weed out non-likely voters.  If their LV screens are too tight, they risk missing the mark on what the electorate will look like in November, rendering their top line numbers fairly useless.  But the opposite is just as true, if not more problematic: If they're surveying a bunch of registered voters, and not narrowing down the voting pool to those who will probably actually cast ballots, they're presenting a different sort of distorted picture.  Well, the Washington Post and ABC News' pollster dropped a new national survey yesterday that represents a clear departure from the 'Democratic momentum' storyline of the summer.  


Among registered voters, Republicans clung to a one-point lead.  Among likely voters, the red advantage bounced out to five points.  As you can see, President Biden's job approval rating has slumped back into the high 30's in this poll, as well.  He's in pretty bad shape, across the board: 


Another elections analyst, Jay Cost, thinks this one lands with a boom:


On the issues, the WaPo/ABC poll finds that 84 percent of Americans say the economy is a top concern as they consider their votes (76 percent say the same on inflation).  And by a 50-point margin (24/74), they call the economy under Biden "not so good" or "poor," as opposed to "good" or "excellent."  Republicans hold big leads on several of the very top issues:

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Democrats are ahead on handling abortion, a phenomenon I addressed at some length last week, but as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie explained on ABC News' Sunday morning show (using the network's own polling data to make his point), the issue may not be cleanly cutting in the Democrats' favor:


And then there's this:


I don't expect swing districts to slant rightward quite this heavily, and this represents a small sample size -- but if this survey's major takeaways don't end up looking like outliers in retrospect, it would seem as though assertions about the red wave's demise may have been premature.  I'll leave you with this, which once again illustrates a polling phenomenon we've been covering in recent years.  There's no guarantee that the data will once again look way off, with reality being more Republican-friendly than surveys, but this is hard to ignore:


And yes, the 'likely voters' polls are looking pretty strong for Republicans overall, including another one (CBS News) in which they're leading, also out yesterday.  Remember, in recent history, slightly trailing on the generic ballot has meant good news for the GOP: