In my post about Herschel Walker yesterday, I noted that the Georgia GOP nominee's prospects have started to look better in recent days, although polls show a mixed bag overall. It's a total jump ball race, in my view. I also highlighted fairly optimistic surveys from two other key contests, with Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) leading in a new Marquette poll, and Adam Laxalt ever so slightly ahead in a new data set out Nevada.
Johnson hanging on to his seat would be a big boon to his party's chances of netting at least one seat and regaining the majority. Wisconsin polling has been notoriously inaccurate and blue-tinted over the last few national cycles, so any numbers showing the Republican ahead seems noteworthy. A GOP internal poll also shows Johnson in the lead, as does another fresh public survey:
?? NEW WISCONSIN POLL By Civiqs
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 15, 2022
SENATE
(R) Johnson 49% (+1)
(D) Barnes 48%
Independents
(R) Johnson 51% (+8)
(D) Barnes 43%
.
GOVERNOR
(D) Evers 49% (+1)
(R) Michels 48%
Independents
(R) Michels 50% (+5)
(D) Evers 45%
780 LV | D36/R35/I29 | 09/10-13https://t.co/scUv6xypbH
It's Johnson by a nose, in a statistically-tied race (the governor's race is also deadlocked, per these numbers). What has improved Johnson's standing? Perhaps Badger State voters are starting to learn more about the man Democrats have nominated against him. Mandela Barnes is a left-wing radical who has called for American capitalism being 'stymied' in service of a green agenda, has been a 'defund the police' ally, and helped foment violent riots in Kenosha with his reckless and inaccurate anti-law enforcement rhetoric. Wisconsinites can and should hear a lot more of his words playing on their screens and devices over the coming weeks -- a point I made in this FBN interview (which obviously touched on other issues, as well):
.@guypbenson Rips Biden’s White House ‘Inflation Reduction’ Party: ‘Tone Deaf Split Screen’#FoxNews #GuyBensonShow #Biden https://t.co/xJaIdwcJgW
— The Guy Benson Show (@GuyBensonShow) September 15, 2022
Meanwhile, another poll out of Florida shows Marco Rubio in the lead. This race shouldn't be as close as it seems to be, and Florida polling has been suspect for years now (this is an organization I've never heard of), but the incumbent is looking to lock down a cannot-lose seat in the upper chamber:
NEW: @SachsMediaGrp
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 15, 2022
FL Governor
(R) Ron DeSantis 51% (+6)
(D) Charlie Crist 45%
FL Senate
(R) Marco Rubio 49% (+3)
(D) Val Demings 46%
09/10 | N=600 LV https://t.co/NwNadfvxN4 pic.twitter.com/x4SglSkR4x
In Ohio, a new survey of Buckeye State voters also gives JD Vance a thin lead in that Senate battle. Ohio polling has also been sketchy recently, often underestimating Republican support by significant margins. This might be a sign Vance is on a better footing than the too-close-for-comfort narrative suggests. This is another absolute must-win race for Republicans:
?? NEW SENATE POLLING BY CIVIQS
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 15, 2022
OHIO
(R) J.D. Vance 48% (+3)
(D) Tim Ryan 45%
WISCONSIN
(R) Ron Johnson 49% (+1)
(D) Mandela Barnes 48%
? Sept. 10-13
? 780 likely voters per state
? 3.7% margin of errorhttps://t.co/Xp58tUUpRv
If if if Republicans hold the line in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin, they could lose Pennsylvania and still pick off two other Democrat-held seats (most likely some combination of AZ/GA/NH/NV) to eke out a bare majority. If they run the table in defending currently red seats, their chances of winning the majority back improve dramatically. As for the generic ballot, I'll leave you with a game of pick your poll. The latest Fox numbers have Democrats edging into the lead (44/41) among registered voters (and tied among the likeliest voters). Trafalgar's data paints a different picture:
New #GenericBallot @trafalgar_group #Poll (9/7-9) shows slight increase for #GOP—6% lead:
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 12, 2022
47.9% #GOP
42.2% #Dem
9.9% Und
See Report: https://t.co/eCBgfPI48j pic.twitter.com/kqK6cQUmga
