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New Polls: Senate Prospects Looking Up for Republicans?

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  September 16, 2022 1:05 PM

In my post about Herschel Walker yesterday, I noted that the Georgia GOP nominee's prospects have started to look better in recent days, although polls show a mixed bag overall.  It's a total jump ball race, in my view.  I also highlighted fairly optimistic surveys from two other key contests, with Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) leading in a new Marquette poll, and Adam Laxalt ever so slightly ahead in a new data set out Nevada.  

Johnson hanging on to his seat would be a big boon to his party's chances of netting at least one seat and regaining the majority.  Wisconsin polling has been notoriously inaccurate and blue-tinted over the last few national cycles, so any numbers showing the Republican ahead seems noteworthy.  A GOP internal poll also shows Johnson in the lead, as does another fresh public survey:


It's Johnson by a nose, in a statistically-tied race (the governor's race is also deadlocked, per these numbers).  What has improved Johnson's standing?  Perhaps Badger State voters are starting to learn more about the man Democrats have nominated against him.  Mandela Barnes is a left-wing radical who has called for American capitalism being 'stymied' in service of a green agenda, has been a 'defund the police' ally, and helped foment violent riots in Kenosha with his reckless and inaccurate anti-law enforcement rhetoric.  Wisconsinites can and should hear a lot more of his words playing on their screens and devices over the coming weeks -- a point I made in this FBN interview (which obviously touched on other issues, as well):


Meanwhile, another poll out of Florida shows Marco Rubio in the lead.  This race shouldn't be as close as it seems to be, and Florida polling has been suspect for years now (this is an organization I've never heard of), but the incumbent is looking to lock down a cannot-lose seat in the upper chamber:


In Ohio, a new survey of Buckeye State voters also gives JD Vance a thin lead in that Senate battle.  Ohio polling has also been sketchy recently, often underestimating Republican support by significant margins.  This might be a sign Vance is on a better footing than the too-close-for-comfort narrative suggests.  This is another absolute must-win race for Republicans:

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If if if Republicans hold the line in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Wisconsin, they could lose Pennsylvania and still pick off two other Democrat-held seats (most likely some combination of AZ/GA/NH/NV) to eke out a bare majority.  If they run the table in defending currently red seats, their chances of winning the majority back improve dramatically.  As for the generic ballot, I'll leave you with a game of pick your poll.  The latest Fox numbers have Democrats edging into the lead (44/41) among registered voters (and tied among the likeliest voters).  Trafalgar's data paints a different picture: