Apologies, right out of the gate, for the misleading headline. The fresh data out of Texas does not exactly point to a polling 'bounce' for the gubernatorial prospects of one Robert Francis 'Beto' O'Rourke. Democrats and the media (often inseparable, or at least complementary, entities) have been excitedly pumping a Betomentum narrative for weeks. And there were a number of polls purporting to show the gap between incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott and his Democratic opponent narrowing to low-to-mid single digits.
Some on the Left were said to be feeling increasingly 'bullish' about Beto's chances heading into November. Republicans should take absolutely nothing for granted, of course, but a new survey out of the Lone Star State doesn't exactly point to momentum for the challenger:
NEW: University of Texas at Tyler
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 14, 2022
TX-Gov:
(R*) Abbot 46% (+7)
(D) O'Rourke 39%
Certain to vote:
(R*) Abbot 51% (+10)
(D) O'Rourke 41%
1,384 RV / 08/01-07 / MoE 2.8%https://t.co/16qqDzOFcv
Abbott's job approval ratings in Texas aren't glittering (though he's +12 on the economy in this data set), and 46 percent for an incumbent isn't a dominant position, by any means. That being said, O'Rourke isn't some little-known figure fighting for name recognition. He's spent gobs of cash, much of it furnished by Resistance liberals outside of Texas, building sweeping name recognition in the state over the span of years, dating back to his high-octane Senate race against Ted Cruz in 2018. In that race alone, O'Rourke raised a staggering $80 million, and came within three points of the incumbent, in a notable blue cycle. He then ran for president, unsuccessfully, garnering lots of additional attention. For better or worse, Texans know 'Beto.' And in this poll, he's stuck at 39 percent. That's a flat-out bad number for someone in his position. As you can see, among the likeliest voters, Abbott's lead stretches into double digits, reaching Cornyn-re-elect levels (against a relative unknown, in a presidential year).
What's benefiting Abbott? The inherent redness of Texas helps, naturally, and this is shaping up to be a red-tinted election. An unpopular president is in the White House, and inflation is at or near 40-year highs. Quite a few Republicans should be able to sail through based on those facts alone. I also suspect that Abbott's war of words with the Democratic Mayor of New York City over the border crisis can't hurt. It's a losing issue for Democrats in Texas, and Eric Adams' stance is, effectively, 'we support the crisis policies, but don't want to deal with the consequences -- which Texas should shut up and handle.' That's a pretty useful political foil for Team Abbott. They should pay for Adams to come campaign in Texas, as threatened. Meanwhile, O'Rourke is trying to soften his image as an anti-gun zealot, which isn't a great perception to have attached to you if you're running for statewide office in Texas:
This is a weird ad considering Beto is literally proposing confiscating the most popular rifles in the country. That's his current position, but he's out here with an ad about how he doesn't want to take people's guns. https://t.co/LZB8cKteuq
— Stephen Gutowski (@StephenGutowski) August 14, 2022
The problem for Beto 3.0 is that voters aren't going to forget Beto 2.0, who aggressively and unapologetically called for gun confiscation. This wasn't a lifetime ago. It was late 2019, and yes, he's talking about government confiscation:
And don't forget this culture war gladiator moment, which drew cheers from activists at a CNN forum. Even many supporters of same-sex marriage (like yours truly) are appalled by the illiberal and unconstitutional notion that churches and other religious institutions should face government sanctions for failing to support the practice. That's cartoonish secular-leftist authoritarianism. That's Beto O'Rourke. Quite frankly, if he plays his cards right -- even up against another onslaught of heavily out-of-state Beto Bucks -- Gov. Abbott should be able to beat O'Rourke by a margin beyond mid-single-digits, especially in this enviroment. We'll see.
