A brand new national survey from ABC News shows that President Joe Biden's job approval remains in rough shape, with other results reflecting voters' overall sour mood about the direction of the country and the US economy. Journalists have been tripping over themselves to declare the "Biden comeback" underway, scrupulously ignoring ongoing failures on issues from the border crisis, to the botching of monkeypox, to the baby formula shortage.
But just as American voters are overwhelmingly rejecting Democrats' ludicrous "inflation reduction" label for their giant tax-and-spend bill, they're also not buying the media's pro-Biden spin:
With the midterm elections three months away, Americans maintain a sour view on the state of the economy and are pessimistic about its future course, with President Joe Biden’s approval rating across a range of issue areas continuing to suffer, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll. More than two-thirds (69%) of Americans think the nation’s economy is getting worse -- the highest that measure has reached since 2008, when it was 82% in an ABC News/Washington Post poll. Currently, only 12% think the economy is getting better and 18% think it is essentially staying the same. Americans' views of Biden's handling of the economic recovery remain overwhelmingly negative -- and are virtually unchanged from the same poll in early June, with only 37% of Americans approving of the job the president is doing and 62% disapproving in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, which was conducted using Ipsos' KnowledgePanel. The president’s rating on inflation is even worse, with 29% of Americans saying they approve, while 69% disapprove. This number is also unchanged since June.
These are some ugly, crooked numbers for the president, whose party is desperately hoping that voters won't tie his job performance to their electoral performance in November:
ABC: "No meaningful approval rating increase for Joe Biden. Across the board, on a range of issues, he is still stuck in some low numbers"
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 7, 2022
29% - Inflation
34% - Immigration
37% - The Economy
38% - Crime
69% of Americans think the economy is getting worse -- Highest since 2008 pic.twitter.com/RvtpGpoKNF
Within the poll, Republicans lead by approximately ten points on several of the biggest issues facing voters – the economy, inflation, and crime – albeit with many undecideds. Given how bad Biden's numbers are on those issues, it stands to reason that lopsided percentages of undecided voters are Biden disapprovers, which doesn't bode well for Democrats (even acknowledging that some portion of those disapprovers are on the left). Democrats appear to have closed the enthusiasm gap somewhat, across a number of polls, but the GOP still has an edge on that metric, too:
ABC/Ipsos Poll: How enthusiastic are you about voting in November?
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 7, 2022
Very/Somewhat enthusiastic:
Republicans 75% (+7)
Democrats 68%
Aug 5-6 / 665 Adultshttps://t.co/lC3QLYmfey
Democrats have pulled into a tie with Republicans on the generic 2022 ballot, which represents a deterioration of the opposition party's standing. Being tied on this measure is generally a good sign for Republicans. As others have noted, Republicans achieved a double-digit gain in House seats in 2020 after "only" losing the national House popular vote by three points (outperforming their early August polling average by nearly six percentage points). Democrats narrowly led on the generic ballot at this point in 2014, a year in which they won the national House popular vote handily and also gained nine Senate seats. Relatedly, this GOP operative also recently made a worthwhile point on the state of the generic ballot:
Recommended
Starting to see a Likely Voter vs Registered Voter split emerge here
— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) August 3, 2022
Last 4 LV polls: GOP +1, GOP +2, GOP +5, GOP +8
Last 4 RV polls: Dem +5, Dem +3, Dem +2, Tie
Hug your favorite model pic.twitter.com/3eD9rSLsaq
When a likely voter screen is applied, Republicans lead. Among registered voters, Democrats have a modest edge. The closer we get to the election, and we're well inside the 100-day mark, LV polls become more important. Those models factor in things like enthusiasm – and primary results keep showing a pretty consistent theme on that front. Scroll through this feed for example after example. This is how things have been shaping up overall:
Rs have turned out at higher rate than Ds in ‘22 primaries. But, Dem turnout higher than ‘wave’ years of 2010/14. Enough to change trajectory? Not enough for House, but maybe SEN https://t.co/FM1FKKzD4Q
— Amy Walter (@amyewalter) August 5, 2022
I continue to maintain that the big question about this midterm cycle is not whether it will be a "wave" year. There will very likely be something of a red wave. The question is whether it'll be a major, across-the-board wave (2010/2014) or if it'll look more like a "reverse 2018," in which Republicans win the House back by a comfortable margin but under-perform in statewide races (Senate/governorships) due to a variety of factors. Based on the data we have right now, I'd say the 2018 scenario is looking more likely, if the election were held in the next few weeks. But big wave years often break fairly late, despite lots of inklings and breadcrumbs leading up to what eventually looks, in retrospect, like inevitable and decisive movement. There remains a strong possibility of this happening, in my view, to the benefit of Republicans. Let's see how all the numbers look two months from now.
