The political chattering class has been speculating about whether Joe Biden will seek re-election, at higher and higher decibels lately, as polls show a large majority of Democratic voters would prefer that he stand down in 2024. There has also been discussion around whether Donald Trump might announce his intention to seek the presidency again prior to November. Many observers, including quite a few conservatives and Trump supporters, believe such a move could be a boon to Democrats.
But this recent piece in the Washington Post, to which I'm a few days late? This is a new one:
The midterm elections this November would become about key issues and the quality of individual House and Senate candidates rather than the merits of Biden’s presidency and whether voters feel he should run again...Why not direct all Biden’s strength to moving public opinion and Congress toward comity and achievement over the next two years? Biden stands a better chance of a favorable congressional result for the Democrats in November’s election, and of being able to pass legislation during the rest of his term, if the focus is on the House and Senate candidates and their positions on the issues. His age, and his presidency, would be greatly reduced as an issue this fall.
The essay, headlined "quit Joe, quit," urges the president to announce right now that he will not pursue a second term as president. Author Steven Isenberg argues that this maneuver would allow Democrats to shed some of the weight of Biden's low approval ratings and might improve their fortunes in November. Is he right? I'm skeptical. The ruling party would be in even more disarray under this scenario, and the fact that he'd remain president for two more years would not change. The man's job approval ratings are awful, but the widespread public discontent goes far beyond just one man. Look at the right track/wrong track numbers. People are deeply alienated over the direction of the country in general, and many voters attribute much of the problem to the failed policies of Joe Biden, with Biden already acting as something of a figurehead at this point. The prospect of him stepping aside a few years from now doesn't change or alter the status quo – and the continued unified Democratic government would remain a clear and present problem.
More relevant than the "would it work" question, I think this scheme is extremely far-fetched. Biden and team continue to loudly (even angrily) state that they're gearing up for a 2024 run. Whether that's a bluff or not, it seems close to inconceivable that Biden would formally declare himself a lame duck president less than halfway through his term in pursuit of a half-baked theory that doing so might hypothetically mitigate his party's expected midterm losses. Is there any realistic chance he does that? C'mon man. If Biden bows out of the 2024 race, he'll probably wait until the last minute to withdraw from contention. All that said, I can certainly see why liberals would be fantasizing about ways to cut loose a guy whom they see as both a major disappointment and an anchor around their collective fortunes:
RCP Approval Average on July 24
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 24, 2022
2010 - President Obama (-1.6)
Approve 46.2%
Disapprove 47.8%
2014 - President Obama (-10)
Approve 42.6%
Disapprove 52.6%
2018 - President Trump (-9.1)
Approve 43.5%
Disapprove 52.6%
2022 - President Biden (-19.9)
Approve 37.2%
Disapprove 57.1% pic.twitter.com/WKFSgAutx6
NEW: @Civiqs | 07/22
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 24, 2022
Biden Job Approval
Approve 30%
Disapprove 58%
Independents
Approve 19%
Disapprove 68%
25% - Arizona
25% - Georgia
28% - Nevada (new low)
31% - Pennsylvania
31% - New Mexico
32% - Wisconsin
33% - Michigan
34% - New Hampshire https://t.co/aNSbAOfokX pic.twitter.com/6hRGvtIE9a
Consider this poll out of Arizona, in which incumbent Democratic rubber stamp Senator Mark Kelly is ahead of a leading GOP would-be opponent by three points. That's the good news for Dems. The bad news? Kelly is only at 44 percent as the unchallenged incumbent, with Republicans still battling away in their primary. And among the many undecided voters, strong Biden disapprovers outnumber strong Biden approvers by...50 points. I'll leave you with this data point, which informs our discussion about the size of a possible red wave:
New #GenericBallot @trafalgar_group #Poll (Conducted 7/20-22) shows slight tightening but #GOP maintaining 8%+ lead:
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) July 23, 2022
48.3% #GOP
40.2% #Dem
11.5% Und
See Report: https://t.co/CPENHUtIF1 pic.twitter.com/QtpvwWa7t0
