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Tipsheet

Dem Strategists: Let's Face It, We're Facing a 'Biblical Disaster' in November

Well, yes, it would seem so -- for a combination of reasons we spelled out earlier in the week.  Which is why the White House has gotten incrementally more desperate in their blame-casting. Yesterday, we shared the latest Quinnipiac poll, which showed just one-third of Americans approving of the president's job performance, including barely one-fourth of independent voters.  He's fallen through the floor with young people (see below), and is gasping for air among Hispanics.  Dire straits.  Even if you're inclined to chalk up the Q-poll as an outlier, here's the latest data set from CNBC:

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Americans harbor some of the most downbeat views on the economy since the recovery from the Great Recession, and some of their attitudes are in line with those seen only during recessions, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey. Amid soaring inflation, 47% of the public say the economy is “poor,” the highest number in that category since 2012. Only 17% rank the economy as excellent or good, the lowest since 2014. Only one in five Americans describe their personal financial situation as “getting ahead,” the weakest showing in eight years. Most say they are “remaining in place,” and one in 10 say they are “falling backward.” Meanwhile, 56% say they expect a recession in the next year — a level only achieved in the survey during an actual recession...the president’s approval rating sank to a new low of just 38%, with 53% disapproving. Biden’s -15% net approval rating is measurably worse than his -9% approval in the CNBC December survey. What’s more, his approval rating on the economy dropped for a fourth straight survey to just 35%, with 60% disapproving, putting the president a deep 25 points underwater.
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Those are not outlier numbers.  The RealClearPolitics average pegged Biden's overall approval at (40/52) as of Thursday, so CNBC's (38/53) is right there.  Same deal on the economy: RCP average (36/59), CNBC (35/60).  These are terrible levels, which explains why Democratic strategists are sounding morose:

Democrats are facing a nightmare scenario with about six months to go before the midterm elections. Inflation, immigration, the war in Ukraine and the still-lingering COVID-19 pandemic make for a dreadful political atmosphere for President Biden’s party. The problems are compounded by Biden’s weak approval numbers and the historical pattern whereby a president’s party typically loses seats in the first midterms of his tenure. Some Democrats believe a turnaround is still possible, or at least that losses can be kept modest. But others, granted anonymity to speak candidly, sound a louder alarm. “I think this is going to be a biblical disaster,” said one such Democratic strategist, who did not wish to be named. “This is the reality we are in as Democrats and no one wants to face it.”

Incidentally, there is a very clear moment when Biden's standing with the public first dipped underwater:

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A snippet from that story:

The problem, according to Rabah, is his lack of a passport, which was destroyed by U.S. Embassy staff as they evacuated Kabul last summer. “There is no option for me,” said Rabah, who spoke to National Review on the condition that his real name not be published. “They destroyed my passport means they destroyed my whole life. If I had a passport, everything was possible. Without a passport . . . I can do nothing.”...“There are absolutely thousands [of people in this circumstance]. There’s no doubt about that,” said Ben Owen, chief executive of Flanders Fields, a civilian group that has been part of the rescue efforts in Afghanistan...For Afghans like Rabah, who assisted the U.S. and are now on the Taliban kill list, getting replacement passports can be treacherous. Rabah said he paid at least $5,000 for his family’s original application and documents, and then had to pay another $3,150 to replace the passports that were destroyed in August. When they were ready, he sent a nephew to pick them up, he said. When he did, his nephew was taken into custody by the Taliban. Rabah said the Taliban has searched his home three times looking for him. Working as an interpreter, he helped the U.S. interrogate many Taliban prisoners. They now are in power. “Those people know me,” he said. “If they find me, surely they will kill me.
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That debacle has largely slipped out of headlines and coverage, but thousands of human beings to whom the United States -- and this president himself -- had made a solemn pledge remain in serious harm's way, abandoned in a terrorist-controlled country.  Today.  Right now.  Biden also promised it wouldn't unfold the way it did:


Then the meltdown followed, and Biden called it an "extraordinary success."  I'll leave you with two more data points underscoring Biden's problems, and therefore his party's problems (especially among vulnerable members):

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