We'll review some of the state-level numbers in a moment, but first, a look at President Biden's overall standing nationally – and my goodness, the results are grim for Democrats. Take all of this with grains of salt, per usual. It's just one poll, the subsamples in each state are relatively small (though the survey was quite large), margins of error, etc. But if these data points are generally in the ballpark, the party in power could be looking at a beatdown of historic proportions later this year:
NEW: @Civiqs / Feb 13
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 14, 2022
President Biden Approval Poll:
Approve 34%
Disapprove 56%
Independents:
Approve 23%
Disapprove 66%
Hispanics:
Approve 44%*
Disapprove 45%
*Biden's net approval among Hispanics declined by 40 points since Jan 2021 pic.twitter.com/AIqE6JyQ2g
Brutal. He's (-22) overall, hitting a floor in the mid-30's. That's blowout territory. Among independents, who swing battleground elections, fully two-thirds disapprove, while less than one-in-four approve of his performance. And that net swing within the Hispanic demographic is both dreadful for Biden personally, but another worrisome sign for the Democratic Party, which has suffered erosion with Latinos in recent years. As for the state-by-state numbers, this outcome isn't really much of a surprise:
The state in which Joe Biden is the most unpopular is West Virginia. pic.twitter.com/WVEi7k4uHq
— Charles C. W. Cooke (@charlescwcooke) February 15, 2022
How does one earn a rating that dreadful in any state? By garnering less than 70 percent support within his own party, and polling at 12 percent among independents. That's how. Does anyone think Sen. Joe Manchin is the least bit intimidated by pressure campaigns from outside leftists demanding that he vote the Biden line? Meanwhile, let's look at the president's standing in some crucial Senate states in the 2022 cycle:
Arizona: (32/61)
Georgia: (31/59)
Nevada: (35/58)
New Hampshire: (41/51)
North Carolina: (33/58)
Pennsylvania: (36/57)
Wisconsin: (36/56)
Biden's "best" showing within this group is being underwater by ten points in New Hampshire, which he carried by nearly eight points in 2020. I'm honestly skeptical that the numbers are truly this bleak across the board. If they are, Republicans could pick up seats in "reach" races, and should be taking recruitment very seriously. But even if you spot Biden ten net points in all of these places, it's still pretty dark stuff for his party. It's true that disapproving of Biden does not automatically translate into voting GOP. But it's also true that presidential approval is a key benchmark for predicting midterm election outcomes. History is already cutting against Democrats' chances this year. Biden's approval being in the toilet is an aggravating factor that could morph modest losses into disastrous losses. Republicans could really improve their chances of achieving major gains by attracting A-list names to compete. Their record of doing so thus far is...less than stellar on the Senate side, largely thanks to grievance-mongering and score-settling by Donald Trump. If things tighten, that could be the difference. But if Biden is still sucking wind this fall, it may not matter much who the GOP puts on the ballot in a lot of these places – in which case, Katy, bar the door.
Meanwhile, here's a separate poll out of America's largest and most diverse swing state. Florida may be trending red lately, but recall that Obama won it twice, and just four years ago, Republicans won statewide races by less than one percentage point. Yowza:
FL GOV poll (Mason-Dixon):
— Reid Wilson (@PoliticsReid) February 15, 2022
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) 51
Rep. Charlie Crist (D) 43
DeSantis 53
Ag Commish Nikki Fried (D) 42
DeSantis 53
St Sen. Annette Taddeo (D) 37
DEM primary:
Crist 44
Fried 27
Taddeo 3
Undecided 26https://t.co/4mCQQo5geD
(Mason-Dixon poll - Florida) Do you have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of Ron DeSantis?
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) February 15, 2022
Overall: 53/43
Republicans: 89/9
Independents: 61/32
Democrats: 11/84
White: 61/37
Hispanics: 50/44
Black: 16/71
Men: 60/37
Women: 47/49
Over 50 yrs old: 56/41
Under 50: 49/45
This is the second Florida survey out this month showing Gov. DeSantis at (+10) favorability, and leading his would-be Democratic challengers by big margins (especially for Florida, where five points is a landslide). He's up eight on Charlie Crist, and up 11 on Nikki Fried. That's what happens when 61 percent of independent voters have a favorable view of you, as do a majority of Sunshine State Hispanics. It's data like this that make me take a second look at the state-by-state numbers above and wonder where the bottom might be for the president and his party. If DeSantis (and likely Rubio) have a real chance of winning by high single digits or higher in Florida, then you factor in Glenn Youngkin's victory in Virginia, it's not much of a stretch to start to think about widespread losses for Democrats in the fall. And the likelihood of that eventuality only increases with every painful development like this:
The U.S. producer price index for final demand increased 9.7% from January of last year and 1% from the prior month, Labor Department data showed Tuesday. Both figures were more than forecast https://t.co/Gk2SV7L8zt
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) February 15, 2022
On that front, I'll leave you with this. Does anyone have confidence that this man understands the problem, let alone the solution?
Inflation had biggest spike since 1982.
— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) February 11, 2022
NBC's Lester Holt: "Back in July you said inflation was going to be temporary... A lot of Americans are wondering what your definition is temporary is."
President Biden: "You're being a wise guy." pic.twitter.com/DWAdD9vfFp
UPDATE - Another one, which also shows the GOP leading on the 2022 generic ballot. Hoo boy:
(Quinnipiac poll) Do you approve/disapprove of Biden?
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) February 16, 2022
Overall: 35/55
GOP: 4/94
Dem: 74/16
Indie: 32/58
Men: 30/62
Women: 41/48
White w/ college: 48/46
White w/o: 24/68
White Women: 39/52
White: 32/60
Black: 54/35
Hispanic: 36/49
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