Let's review where things stand on Omicron, vis-a-vis my big three initial questions upon the new variant's emergence: On transmissibility, it does seem quite contagious. On vaccine efficacy, it's a mixed bag. Boosters appear to help, while 'hybrid' immunity (vaccine plus natural immunity) is robust. On virulence, the news continues to be quite encouraging. This is very important stuff:
?????? Cautiously optimistic… https://t.co/YxZAo0JY61
— Nicole Saphier, MD (@NBSaphierMD) December 12, 2021
Meanwhile, as of early December, the World Health Organization had reported zero known deaths from the Omicron variant. In the world. An update, about a week later -- via Snopes:
On Dec. 10, the World Health Organization told us no omicron cases reported up to that date had resulted in death, but "it is still early in the clinical course of disease and this may change."
It seems inconceivable that no one will ever die with or from the Omicron variant (see update), but the fact that there have been no confirmed examples of this happening thus far is incredibly heartening. If Omicron were even close to as virulent as Delta, let alone more virulent, we would almost certainly know about it by this stage. It's been the dominant strain in South Africa for weeks. It's entirely fair and prudent to say that we still need more information and data. But the available information on the severity of Omicron is good news:
December 11 Omicron update from Europe
— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) December 11, 2021
- all cases for which there is available information have been asymptomatic or mild
- no deaths so far
It’s the same story everywhere: Too early to draw strong conclusions, but the lack of bad news on severity is good news pic.twitter.com/FStZ9str4Y
More affirmation from doctors on the ground in South Africa, as flagged by Allahpundit:
As the omicron variant sweeps through South Africa, Dr. Unben Pillay is seeing dozens of sick patients a day. Yet he hasn’t had to send anyone to the hospital…“They are able to manage the disease at home,” Pillay said of his patients. “Most have recovered within the 10 to 14-day isolation period.” said Pillay. And that includes older patients and those with health problems that can make them more vulnerable to becoming severely ill from a coronavirus infection, he said… “At the moment, virtually everything points toward it being milder disease,” Willem Hanekom, director of the Africa Health Research Institute, said, citing the national institute’s figures and other reports.
On the broader benefits of vaccination, Dr. Scott Gottlieb highlights this key point:
On @FaceTheNation, @ScottGottliebMD explains that Delta's ferocity, compared to the original Wuhan virus, is disguising what vaccines have accomplished. Against a "far more transmissible" variant, our hospitalization rate is half what it was a year ago. https://t.co/yFy6C5yn0K pic.twitter.com/RSXczmidaC
— Will Saletan (@saletan) December 12, 2021
But we aren't entirely out of the woods yet -- and non-red states are still experiencing pain. I'll again recommend this piece about living with COVID as an endemic virus, then leave you with this insane juxtaposition:
Avg weekly local infection rate for the five weeks before SEC football began was 0.44%. It decreased to 0.18% during the SEC football season. No evidence that SEC football activities led to outbreaks in host communities. My piece with Drs. Bai and Plummer. https://t.co/OzHSrrlhk2
— Marty Makary MD, MPH (@MartyMakary) December 9, 2021
Jenn Psaki defending kids being forced to eat outside in the bitter cold while socially distanced is absolute insanity. There’s no science at all that supports this. It’s pure madness. pic.twitter.com/7vK0wSSwOD
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) December 11, 2021
UPDATE - The UK is reporting one death with Omicron, which is absolutely not synonymous with 'caused by,' or even 'related to.' This remains the overall reality:
All Omicron cases for which there is available information on severity were either asymptomatic or mild (EU report). There have been no Omicron-related deaths reported. https://t.co/gaXW9uWiIB
— Marty Makary MD, MPH (@MartyMakary) December 13, 2021
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