We can only go up from here is the sentiment, and it's an understandable one for a few reasons. First, what else are they supposed to say? Things are bleak at the moment, and denying that reality really isn't much of an option at this point. Second, they have to believe it for their own morale. Staring into the abyss of a presidency mired in unpopularity for the next three years isn't an uplifting prospect for Team Biden, so they must convince themselves that sunnier days lie ahead. And finally, it may well be true. Not necessarily in the sense that they've already bottomed out – things certainly could deteriorate further – but in the sense that political fortunes often rise and fall, and nothing is permanent in this game. It's a safe bet that even if Joe Biden remains relatively unpopular in the aggregate over the remainder of his term, he'll have some boosts and positive cycles in the months and years ahead.
Then again, there's some risk in engaging in wishful thinking, or assuming that whatever struggles you're currently experiencing must be the lowest ebb. I'd bet many people at the White House assumed that was the case during the disgraceful Afghanistan debacle. They were wrong. Weakness and unpopularity can compound, and that's what's happened here. Incompetence and negative impressions sometimes take root and are hard to reverse or shake, as the president and his administration are learning the hard way. Negative events and sentiments obviously play into this. So while I understand why Biden associates are expecting a bounce back, saying so out loud might be seen as tempting fate:
Privately, per @tylerpager, many administration officials and allies contend that the state of affairs cannot get worse, believing that Biden and the Democrats have hit their floor in negative approval ratings. https://t.co/eZu2Ybwvzy
— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) November 15, 2021
The Washington Post article correctly notes that the Biden brain trust has often misinterpreted the peril they've been in, while underselling problems to the American people. That has not served them well. Writing at the Washington Examiner, Byron York describes an adrift administration that could struggle to right the ship:
The speculation, finger-pointing, and backbiting caused by the uncertainty is well underway. Over the weekend, CNN published a piece in which unnamed Biden allies trashed Harris — the lead to the story was, "Worn out by what they see as entrenched dysfunction and lack of focus, key West Wing aides have largely thrown up their hands at Vice President Kamala Harris and her staff — deciding there simply isn't time to deal with them right now." And more: "Harris is struggling with a rocky relationship with some parts of the White House, while longtime supporters feel abandoned and see no coherent public sense of what she's done or trying to do as vice president." And then, of course, the Harris side struck back, with the same CNN article reporting that "many in the vice president's circle fume that she's not being adequately prepared or positioned, and instead is being sidelined." ... It's a mess. To put it mildly, it is not good if you are a new president, less than a year into the job, and people in your own party are speculating that you can't make it past one term and your vice president isn't strong enough to succeed you...So the Biden White House, just months in power, has become a dumpster fire. Some of its problems are fixable. But other problems are structural — they won't get better even if Congress passes this or that bill.
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The drama surrounding Vice President Harris speaks to a scenario in which the president is failing, his party is anxious about his and its future, his vice president is seen with mistrust and frustration by the president's team – and is seen as a shaky future bet by the party. Again, things may get turned around or stabilized before the midterms, or certainly before 2024. But this sort of flurry of recriminations, at this early stage, isn't a great sign. These are among the first few paragraphs of the CNN piece mentioned above:
The exasperation runs both ways. Interviews with nearly three dozen former and current Harris aides, administration officials, Democratic operatives, donors and outside advisers -- who spoke extensively to CNN -- reveal a complex reality inside the White House. Many in the vice president's circle fume that she's not being adequately prepared or positioned, and instead is being sidelined. The vice president herself has told several confidants she feels constrained in what she's able to do politically. And those around her remain wary of even hinting at future political ambitions, with Biden's team highly attuned to signs of disloyalty, particularly from the vice president. She's a heartbeat away from the presidency now. She could be just a year away from launching a presidential campaign of her own, given doubts throughout the political world that Biden will actually go through with a reelection bid in 2024, something he's pledged to do publicly and privately. Or she'll be a critical validator in three years for a President trying to get the country to reelect him to serve until he's 86. Few of the insiders who spoke with CNN think she's being well-prepared for whichever role it will be. Harris is struggling with a rocky relationship with some parts of the White House, while long-time supporters feel abandoned and see no coherent public sense of what she's done or been trying to do as vice president.
Read all about Harris allies getting "frantic," the reported failure of a consultant hired to help her, and the "undeniable structural issues of race and gender" that Harris defenders see as major factors in the unfair way she's being treated. They are wielding identity politics as they air their grievances, which is telling, if not predictable. They're targeting their own party. But here's the thing – there's a common denominator in all of this:
With many sources speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the situation more frankly, they all tell roughly the same story: Harris' staff has repeatedly failed her and left her exposed, and family members have often had an informal say within her office. Even some who have been asked for advice lament Harris' overly cautious tendencies and staff problems, which have been a feature of every office she's held, from San Francisco district attorney to US Senate.
If she has had staff problems in every single political job she's held, maybe the issue isn't the staff. If you missed it yesterday, here's some of the damage control being attempted:
For anyone who needs to hear it. @VP is not only a vital partner to @POTUS but a bold leader who has taken on key, important challenges facing the country—from voting rights to addressing root causes of migration to expanding broadband.
— Jen Psaki (@PressSec) November 15, 2021
Let me reiterate: pic.twitter.com/zAxoXkFyQu
— SDS (@SymoneSanders46) November 14, 2021
I'll leave you with this projection, which anticipates supply chain issues into the end of next year, with normalization returning gradually over time:
End-2022. https://t.co/u9XrWVODef
— Scott Lincicome (@scottlincicome) November 15, 2021
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