Do we know for an ironclad fact that these people are Democratic activists and supporters pulling a ham-fisted, glaringly obvious dirty trick attempt to smear Glenn Youngkin? Not yet. But I'd bet a hefty sum of money that's what's happening here. They're dressed identically. They're carrying tiki torches -- a la Charlottesville -- in the rain. The torches look like they were just purchased at the dollar store. And one of the "white nationalists" crashing a Youngkin event to "support him" is, um, a black guy. Not subtle, gang:
These men approached @GlennYoungkin’s bus as it pulled up saying what sounded like, “We’re all in for Glenn.” Here they are standing in front of the bus as his campaign event at Guadalajara started.@NBC29 pic.twitter.com/l681ejyBjc
— Elizabeth Holmes (@holmes_reports) October 29, 2021
Right on cue, a top McAuliffe aide blasted out the tweet, treating the stunt as if it were genuine, and as if there isn't a 99 percent likelihood that this crew isn't comprised of McAuliffe supporters (see updates below):
This is disgusting and disqualifying. https://t.co/EJ9Fk7OeTE
— Jen Goodman (@jengoodman75) October 29, 2021
Question: If it's your own supporters who are responsible for this, for whom is it "disqualifying," Jen? Team Blue is desperate, and they're resorting to some of the ugliest and most cartoonish race-baiting I can recall. Here's another installment:
There’s a word @GlennYoungkin would really like to say to talk about black people, but he knows he can’t, so he codes it with “Critical Race Theory.” Don’t take my word, trust the honorable Republicans who made this ad and know how this ugly strategy works. https://t.co/J8Nqqriy0p
— Eric Swalwell (@ericswalwell) October 29, 2021
Here we have Eric 'Fang Fang' Swalwell -- who was already full of hot air -- breezily tweeting that Glenn Youngkin really wants to scream the N-word, but instead he's talking about Critical Race Theory. My retort on Twitter was, "you’re tweeting this gross bullsh*t on behalf of the guy who’s campaigning with not one, but two, white guys who wore black face. You know that, right?" Also, extra hack points for referring to the disgraced Lincoln Project as "honorable." It would seem as though the 'progressives' are spooked that they might actually lose this race in a Biden +10 state, and there must have been a collective freakout over the Fox News poll that dropped last night. Journos are consoling themselves with a new Washington Post survey out this morning:
NEW WaPo/Schar School poll: McAuliffe 49, Youngkin 48.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 29, 2021
"Youngkin is fueled by an 18-point advantage among independent likely voters, up from an eight-point advantage last month — a significant swing in a group that could determine the election’s outcome.”
Youngkin has gained a tiny amount of ground in this series to pull to within a point, but Mac is still clinging to the lead. What's interesting is that there has been a 42-point swing to Youngkin on the issue of education, and the Republican now leads with independents by 18 points in this poll. How, then was there so little movement in the top line result? Ed Morrissey breaks it down and finds that the new WaPo sample is more Democrat-heavy than the last one:
How did that shift not change the toplines? In part, it seems to be because this current survey includes more Democrats and quite a bit fewer independents. According to today’s report, the sample has a D/R/I breakdown of 34/27/33. The previous survey in early September that also had McAuliffe up three points had a D/R/I of 30/24/39.
The new poll surveyed more Democrats, has a D+7 sample, and interviewed far fewer independents, who have moved heavily toward Youngkin. That's how you get a top line tie with those crosstabs. Another way to look at this is that the new sample is four points more Democratic, yet the top line moved two points toward Youngkin. The trajectory of this race is pretty clear. Meanwhile, the Youngkin folks are seeing data from the early voting trends that they believe is encouraging:
Using commercial and government sources, the Democratic data firm TargetSmart estimated that 55% of the early vote has been cast by Democrats, 30% by Republicans and 15% by independents. The Youngkin campaign concedes that McAuliffe is doing better on early voting, but they add he’s not doing well enough. She said the Youngkin campaign projected it would have to win 35% of the early vote to remain competitive with McAuliffe heading into Election Day, which she said the campaign has already exceeded, according to its own model of the electorate.
I've heard they believe they're exceeding their targets in the early vote by a fairly reasonable margin, not just squeaking past. But for their theory of the electorate to pan out, they'll need a big election day turnout from the GOP base and motivated right-leaning independents. We'll know if they're right on Tuesday. I'll leave you with this:
“McAuliffe spends big in final days on sanctioned lawyer who sued to overturn Iowa House race” https://t.co/IaIJKtKOKP
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 28, 2021
Oops!
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 29, 2021
“When Fox News sent the campaign a request for comment, the McAuliffe campaign scrambled to "kill" the story, according to emails mistakenly sent to Fox News.”https://t.co/IWIsL7kw24
UPDATE - Hmmmm, some sleuthing is underway:
Let's take a look at this gentleman. He bears a strong resemblance to one Camden Layton, otherwise known as the finance director for @vayd.
— Alec Sears (@alec_sears) October 29, 2021
Coincidence? I report, you decide. pic.twitter.com/CAlX25hPEX
Camden has gone private pic.twitter.com/xbGoA9jEwP
— Alec Sears (@alec_sears) October 29, 2021
UPDATE II -
?? I am now confident that we have identified the woman in this group of political actors as Colleen Wachenfeld, with @vademocrats. pic.twitter.com/qySknRSUrd
— Alec Sears (@alec_sears) October 29, 2021
Youngkin +3 in #VAGOV, with potential for a GOP sweep of top offices.
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) October 29, 2021
This is of the Likely Electorate, but our all RV weighting scenario shows the same Youngkin +3 margin. https://t.co/nlBWPFOq6d
UPDATE III - And there we have it. It was a characteristically disgusting operation from the disgraced Lincoln Project, apparently using Democratic operatives. The key here is that the McAuliffe campaign treated the stunt as "real" and called it "disqualifying" for Glenn Youngkin when it was blatantly a stunt by their own side. I will not be shocked at all if direct coordination is established:
Once again, McAuliffe camp has been portraying these as real Youngkin supporters all day https://t.co/rBHCLB0wgu
— Graham Moomaw (@gmoomaw) October 29, 2021
This theory also seems viable:
I wouldn't be surprised if the Lincoln Project simply agreed to take responsibility after the fact as a favor to the McAuliffe campaign. They usually don't do grassroots, but rather sit on their boat with confederate flags writing bad ads. https://t.co/bbD7thaimW
— Brian Riedl ?? (@Brian_Riedl) October 29, 2021
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