This morning's analysis of the California recall – which former President Trump is already calling "probably rigged" – wasn't overly sanguine about the prospects of throwing Gov. Gavin Newsom out of office next week. An upset is still conceivable, but Democrats are doing everything they can to pull Newsom across the finish line, including assists from both the president and vice president down the home stretch:
California, voting is underway! Let’s keep @GavinNewsom fighting for Californians in Sacramento and keep the state and nation moving forward.
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) September 7, 2021
Vote NO on the recall. Sign your envelope and return your mail-in ballot or vote in person by September 14. pic.twitter.com/KAZPt1vzJ1
President Joe Biden will travel to California sometime next week to campaign in support of Gov. Gavin Newsom, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday. Last week Newsom said the president would stump on his behalf, though he did not specify when Biden would do so. Psaki did not say when the president would be traveling to the state...The White House had previously committed to drumming up support for Newsom, but those plans were complicated by the tumultuous final days of the Afghanistan withdrawal. Vice President Kamala Harris nixed plans to hold a rally with her home-state governor following the fatal attack in Kabul last month that killed 13 American service members. She is now scheduled to hold an event with Newsom in the San Francisco Bay Area on Wednesday
Americans are still very much stranded in a terrorist-controlled country, of course, but apparently, the optics and media scrutiny have reached sufficiently safe levels for Biden and Harris to get back to the priority of politics. Given Biden's polling struggles lately, one might wonder if his "help" is really welcome or needed in the race, but California is deep blue, so his influence is almost certainly a net positive out there. It ain't over, and participation will dictate the outcome, but Newsom is looking relatively safe at the moment – even if the polls are off by a handful of points. But as Reagan noted yesterday, ahead of Virginia's regularly-scheduled gubernatorial election in November, however, there's an encouraging tidbit for Republicans:
#VAGOV: Shock internal poll from Youngkin shows the Republican up 2 points in the Virginia governor’s race.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) September 8, 2021
Big reason why: Biden favorables down 10 points in a month. At 43/50 fav/unfav in VIRGINIA. https://t.co/Sn1qRBNWMF
On one hand, I'm skeptical of an internal GOP poll that thus far seems to be an outlier. Public polling has shown Democrat and conspiratorial election truther Terry McAuliffe leading marginally in recent weeks. This could be a strategic leak to buck up morale on Team Red, which will need strong turnout for Republican Glenn Youngkin to have a shot at winning. On the other hand, this same survey series had McAuliffe leading by seven roughly a month ago, and Biden's erosion in the new data set aligns with other national trends. There's this poll from last week:
According to a new national poll conducted by Civiqs, President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is underwater in most swing states. The military withdrawal and chaotic civilian evacuation from Afghanistan overseen by Biden left the country in Taliban control and led to the deaths of 13 American soldiers and countless Afghans. In six hotly contested battlegrounds during the 2020 election — namely Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas — Biden’s approval rating is underwater by ten or more percentage points. In Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia and Wisconsin too, more Americans are disappointed in, rather than satisfied with, Biden’s job performance, but by a single digit margin. Biden beat Trump in each of these states in 2020.
And this data we highlighted yesterday:
President Biden’s approval numbers have taken a hit in seven Democrat-controlled swing districts, according to a new poll commissioned by conservative advocacy group American Action Network released on Tuesday. The survey — conducted by Remington Research Group — showed the president underwater by an average of 7 percentage points on the economy and 9 percent on foreign policy in the areas polled...As House Republicans grow more optimistic about their odds of flipping the majority in the House in 2022, the poll found that Democratic representatives are also trailing behind generic Republican challengers by an average of 6 percent.
With Biden taking on water and flipping underwater in battleground states and districts, it would be a huge red flag if Virginia's governor race didn't move in Youngkin's direction. Whether the GOP nominee is slightly ahead, trailing by a few points, or tied, the final weeks of this contest are shaping up to be a ferocious and close battle. I'll leave you with Youngkin's latest ad, laying out his "day one" governing priorities:
And this spot specifically targets the issue of violent crime:
California's recall election is this coming Tuesday, September 14. Virginia and New Jersey's off-year elections take place on November 2. One more note on Biden's numbers:
“more worrisome for Biden (and Ds overall), is that the intensity of opposition to the president is also on the rise, while strong approval has dropped.” Intensity mismatch like this = turnout advantage for Rs.https://t.co/1GYuAAP2EK
— Amy Walter (@amyewalter) September 8, 2021
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