Two days, two fairly intriguing polls in the Democratic primary. We'll get to Quinnipiac's New Hampshire numbers in a moment, but the political class has been oohing and ahhing at Monmouth's latest survey of Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa. According to the new numbers, South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg -- who has been working hard and establishing a formidable ground presence in the Hawkeye State -- has vaulted into first place, followed by someone other than Elizabeth Warren:
Iowa Democrats poll: Monmouth
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) November 12, 2019
Buttigieg 22% (+14 since Aug!!)
Biden 19% (-7)
Warren 18% (-2)
Sanders 13% (+5)
Klobuchar 5% (+2)
Harris 3% (-9)
Steyer 3% (-)
Yang 3% (+2)
Booker 2% (+1)
Gabbard 2% (+1)
[everyone else 1% or less]
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has joined former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at the top of the leaderboard in the third Monmouth University Poll of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses. Buttigieg’s gains since the summer have been across the board, with increasing support coming from nearly every demographic group. Regardless, less than one-third of likely caucusgoers say that they are firmly set on their choice of candidate and most would not be too disappointed if they had to switch their support...Buttigieg has gained ground among every major demographic group since the summer. His support stands at 26% among voters who describe themselves as moderate or conservative, 23% among those who are somewhat liberal, and 15% among those who are very liberal.
That's serious momentum, but is it reflected in the rest of the state's polling? The short answer is yes. Since mid-October, Buttigieg has been pulling support in the mid-teens to low-20's. Still, it's the first time that he's bumped up into the top slot, which has been occupied by either Warren or Joe Biden in every other Iowa poll this cycle. Not anymore. (By the way, at what point does Kamala Harris pack it in? She's poured everything into Iowa, and has only trended downward). Iowa Democrats say Buttigieg has been drawing good crowds, has steadily built support, and is well organized. He's also taking full advantage of Warren's stall/downturn, and the persistent sense that the former vice president is a weak national frontrunner. The theory has been that Biden could not just lose in Iowa and New Hampshire, but not really even complete, which would blunt his momentum and bruise his image heading into his firewall state of South Carolina. But in the Monmouth data above, Biden is virtually tied for first place in Iowa, and he turned some heads in the first Granite State Q-poll of the cycle earlier in the week:
A new Quinnipiac University poll in New Hampshire shows former VP Joe Biden holding a narrow edge.
— CNN (@CNN) November 11, 2019
• Biden: 20%
• Warren: 16%
• Buttigieg: 15%
• Sanders: 14%
• Gabbard: 6%
• Yang: 4%
• Klobuchar: 3%
• Steyer: 3%
No other candidate tops 1%.https://t.co/uUAKTPkN6V
Biden is beating both progressive senators from neighboring states, which bucks the prevailing narrative and suggests that Biden remains stubbornly strong overall. It seems like some people in the race, or some contemplating getting into it (Bloomberg, Holder and Patrick), are banking on an eventual Biden collapse. But what if that never comes?
I think there’s a pretty simple explanation for why all these candidates are considering bizarre late entries: they’re in the same bubble so many of us are, they can’t quite process the fact of Biden’s strong and stable support, so there must be an opening for them.
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) November 11, 2019
Let's say Biden does implode. Buttigieg's emergence into the top tier in each of the first two states suggests that he could stand to benefit significantly from that development, which must be considered a threat by other campaigns. Which is why the knives are starting to come out:
We’ve published a story about why Pete Buttigieg annoys his 2020 Democratic rivals. Part of it is he’s doing well. But rivals dislike his certitude & public punditry & see him as an inexperienced small town mayor being presumptuous. Why Pete and not them? https://t.co/UdyarY9fW4
— Patrick Healy (@patrickhealynyt) November 9, 2019
In the still-crowded Democratic presidential field, one man has triggered an outpouring of resentment and angst. It’s not Donald Trump. As Mr. Buttigieg, the millennial mayor of a town smaller than a New York City Council district, rises in the polls, he has struck a nerve with his Democratic rivals. Many of their campaigns have griped privately about the attention and cash directed toward Mr. Buttigieg. They say he is too inexperienced to be electable and that his accomplishments don’t merit the outsize appeal he has with elite donors and voters. His public punditry about the race has prompted eye rolls from older rivals who view him as a know-it-all. And in a field where most candidates find themselves strapped for cash, they snipe at his ability to raise more than anyone else in the primary field except for Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. More than a dozen participants in the Democratic campaign — including rival candidates and campaign aides — spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss their views about Mr. Buttigieg candidly. They conveyed an annoyance at the McKinsey consultant certitude with which Mr. Buttigieg analyzes and makes pronouncements about the primary.
The knives are getting sharper, too, and one wonders when they'll be deployed. Buttigieg's real problem, though, isn't that he's annoying his rivals; it's that he's unable to generate support among voters of color, who become a massive electoral factor after the earliest pair of contests in overwhelmingly white states, in which the young mayor is surging. A decent chunk of white Democrats is inspired by Pete's persona. Other Democrats? Not so much:
Monmouth poll also gets at a subtext of the “should Iowa go first?” debate, which kind of came out of nowhere. To some white Iowa Dems, Buttigieg is the second coming of Obama. To black voters who sealed the Obama nomination he’s… not.
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) November 12, 2019
Finally, with another undeclared candidate chirping ever louder about possible getting in, claiming that "many, many, many" people are urging her to do so, I'll leave you with this amusing headline from the satirical e The Babylon Bee:
Hillary Clinton Says She Is Being Urged To Run By Many, Many, Many Voices In Her Headhttps://t.co/sJ1aBv3rQ5
— The Babylon Bee (@TheBabylonBee) November 13, 2019
