Yesterday, we laid out the case that vulnerable Senate Democrats representing Trump-dominated states would be wise to disregard the foolish SCOTUS advice being dispensed by their colleague, Dick Durbin. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's top deputy suggested over the weekend that in evaluating the president's then-unnamed Supreme Court nominee, red state Democrats should prioritize partisan opposition over their own re-election considerations. The Wall Street Journal's William McGurn was similarly taken aback by this reflexively resistance-minded counsel:
What makes Mr. Durbin’s call so striking is his frankness about the losing position his party is in. He recognizes that what his party is gearing up to do—wage an all-out war on Brett Kavanaugh (on Monday Nancy Pelosi sent out a fundraising letter saying she will “avenge” Barack Obama by opposing Mr. Trump’s then unannounced nominee “if it’s the last thing I do”)—may prove unpopular enough to cost some red-state Democratic senators their seats come November. Ten Democratic incumbents are up for re-election in states Mr. Trump carried...Now, it’s one thing for a gadfly such as Rand Paul or Bernie Sanders to be willing to give up seats. It’s another when such talk comes from the Senate minority whip...Mr. Durbin is making clear that more-moderate Democrat incumbents will be dragooned into the party’s war with Mr. Trump over the Supreme Court whether they can afford to or not. No doubt this approach resonates with the party’s donors and its activist wings in New York and California. But it won’t play as well in the red states where the most vulnerable Democratic senators are now fighting for their political lives.
The pressure from the Left to vote against Brett Kavanaugh (or nominee 'XX,' according to one amusing, rushed out, pre-written press release) will be immense. But that gambit may also prove futile; moderate Republicans appear to be positively disposed toward Kavanaugh, who was confirmed with 57 votes in 2006 -- and his experience and influence have only swelled ever since. Thanks to Harry Reid, Democrats lack the power to block Kavanaugh if all GOP members stick together. Barring a stunning revelation or an unexpected hearings meltdown, the president's nominee appears well-positioned for confirmation. And if that's the case, it would be a worst-of-all-words outcome for moderate-posturing Democrats, who'd alienate home voters with empty 'no' votes, while failing to impede the ascension of Kavanaugh to the Court. All in all, this strikes me as the correct early line:
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Hard to see right now how Kavanaugh doesn’t get Collins, Murkowski, plus a few Dems. But on to the hearing!
— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) July 10, 2018
One intriguing development is the equivocations of Florida's Bill Nelson, a liberal Democrat who's at least pretending that he's considering supporting Kavanaugh -- for now. This also caught the attention of National Review's Charles Cooke, a new Florida resident:
I’d love to see Bill Nelson’s internal numbers vs. Rick Scott. He voted against Kavanaugh in ’06, but has signaled an openness to voting for Trump's nominee since Kennedy said he’d step down—and he still is. He probably won’t do it, but what’s leading him to this public position?
— Charles C. W. Cooke (@charlescwcooke) July 10, 2018
Nelson is in a dogfight with the state's cash-flush, popular Republican governor, so perhaps he's reconsidering his knee-jerk liberalism during election season. Or perhaps his internals reflect data like this:
POLL: Substantial majorities in key Senate battleground states want new SCOTUS nominee confirmed (via the Tarrance Group & SBA) --> pic.twitter.com/GaFts6y1pI
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 10, 2018
Granted, this survey asked voters about a generic Republican nominee (one might argue that Kavanaugh fits that bill), and appears to have pushed 'leaners' or undecideds into the binary choice -- but the broad-brush results are likely an approximate reflection of public sentiments heading into the confirmation battle). Joining the obstructionist push on such a key, high profile nomination isn't likely to play well back home at all for a number of the Senate's most endangered incumbents. That reality will not be lost on any of them. But just in case they're tempted to wish it away, GOP candidates in several of these key states are pressing the issue. In West Virginia:
Inbox: Joe Manchin’s GOP opponent, Patrick Morrisey, is holding a presser today on #scotus. Going on offense & hitting a pressure point. #WVSen
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 10, 2018
In Indiana:
Joe Donnelly's opponent (Mike Braun) presses the vulnerable incumbent to announce his support for Kavanaugh asap. A slew of GOP challengers already turning up the heat on this issue. #scotus #INSen pic.twitter.com/M5KRHuBw8x
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 10, 2018
And in Missouri:
I'll leave you with National Review's house editorial praising the Kavanaugh pick, a New York Times op/ed written by a liberal Yale Law School professor extolling his former student's intellectual deftness and powerhouse reputation (he calls Kavanaugh a "superb" nominee), and my brief commentary about qualifications andthe confirmation math:
.@guypbenson: “Judge Kavanaugh is unquestionably qualified for the job.” https://t.co/rgOSkls2Xw @AmericaNewsroom pic.twitter.com/TyE9vhECzb
— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 10, 2018
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