VIDEO: Breaking Down the Electoral Map and New Battleground Polling

Posted: Nov 05, 2016 4:01 PM

You want some granular county-by-county analysis? You got it. Fox News Digital Politics Editor Chris Stirewalt got very specific with anchor Bill Hemmer on America's Newsroom, as I provided some color commentary along the way. We examined some crucial regions in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, culminating in my now familiar summary -- Trump's easiest path requires locking down every Romney state, adding FL/OH/IA, and then cobbling together at least 11 more electoral votes. Watch (via the Free Beacon's  David Rutz):

As of this morning, the Real Clear Politics "no toss-ups" map gave Trump 241 EVs. That assumes a loss in Florida, where Clinton has edged back ahead by about a point.  Flip that into the red column, and he hits...exactly 270.  Of course, RCP's averages also forecast Trump wins in North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada.  The former two are extremely close and will come down to turnout.  As Hemmer remarks at the end of the segment, he just keeps circling back to the importance of the Tar Heel State.  I agree completely; looks like one of the most pivotal states in determining control of both the presidency and the Senate.  Nevada polling continues to point to slim leads for both Donald Trump and Joe Heck, but early voting data looks very worrisome for the GOP, which looks like it may need an election day blowout to overcome the leads Democrats are banking:

The point is that despite Trump's 'on paper' RCP advantages in Nevada and North Carolina -- and despite his unquestionable momentum in New Hampshire -- I would caution against counting those chickens just yet.  Of course, Trump could make his life a lot easier by picking off a heavily-populated blue state like Pennsylvania or Michigan.  Democrats are deploying Hillary and Bill and Barack and Michelle to Philadelphia on Monday for a mega-rally, seeking to drive up margins in that important media market.  The Clinton campaign says they believe they have the Keystone State in-hand (do they?), but they certainly do seem to be pulling out a lot of stops to make sure of it.  As for Michigan, a few polls have shown the state tightening a bit in the last few days, prompting added visits from both Clintons, and reportedly Obama, too.  Trump is headed back there, as well. Are those 16 electoral votes suddenly in play?  I'll leave you with a few thoughts to chew on: (1) If black turnout will be down, will increased Hispanic turnout fill that hole in the 'Obama coalition' math?  (2) We hear a lot about 'missing white voters,' to whom Trump may appeal.  Are polls underestimating their turnout, or are people lying to over-the-phone pollsters a la Brexit?  Click through for some answers.  (3) Many observers are chalking up Ohio as a Trump state, but Democrats are still playing hard there.  Do they see something the rest of us don't?