Click through and follow the trend line. Two-and-a-half weeks ago, Ted Cruz seemed to be putting daylight between himself and The Donald in Iowa, surging to nearly 32 percent in RCP's polling average. The Texan was peaking at the perfect moment, it seemed. With less than a week to go until Hawkeye State voters caucus, however, it's looking like Cruz may have peaked too early. Trump's support is indisputably on an upward trajectory -- perhaps thanks to some mix of
Advertisement
Speaking of those #IowaCaucus public opinion polls...the movement is pretty clear & dramatic pic.twitter.com/VY53Ts6SYH
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) January 25, 2016
If you're among the many conservatives opposed to a Trump nomination, I'd submit that the time has come to start rooting hard for a Cruz victory in Iowa, regardless of your candidate preference. A wounded Trump with an early loss under his belt can be beaten. A steamrolling Trump could very well prove unstoppable in the GOP primary (before hitting his general election ceiling). After I published this analysis of the potential consequences of a Trump win in the Hawkeye State, some Twitter pals shoved back with a number of critiques. Several noted that last few GOP Iowa victors never went anywhere, so dramatic pronouncements based on one state's results are premature. Others pointed to Newt Gingrich's 2012 win in South Carolina after getting pasted in Iowa and New Hampshire as evidence that anything can happen. The first counter-example doesn't apply to the Trump phenomenon. Neither Mike Huckabee (2008) nor Rick Santorum (2012) held leads in both of the next two early voting states, let alone Trump-like
Recommended
Advertisement
From a little birdie that knows the caucuses as well as anybody, "The only sign of Trump winning Iowa I see are these public opinion polls."
— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) January 25, 2016
That's from Iowa radio host Steve Deace, a veteran caucus-watcher. His "little birdie" source's sentiments closely mirror what Byron York's been hearing
Advertisement
Advertisement
He's mocking his own hardcore supporters' mindlessness -- and they love it, of course, proving his point. Six days.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member