Hmm: New Pew Poll Not Completely Terrible for Republicans

Posted: Oct 15, 2013 5:15 PM

Don't get your hopes too high based on the headline. Real talk: Many of the new stats still look rather grim, but they aren't as bad much of the other recent data -- plus, this survey features several items that should stoke Democrats' anxiety. Piece by piece:

(1) President Obama's job approval is underwater at (43/51). Pew: "This marks the first time in Obama’s presidency that the share offering a negative job rating has edged above the 50% mark."

(2) Congressional Democrats and Republicans are both extraordinarily unpopular. Republicans fare worse, but that's likely due to divisions on the center-right:

(3) Democrats have an edge in the 2014 generic Congressional ballot, but it's pretty slight at (49/43). One year before the GOP's tidal wave of 2010, Democrats led on this question (47/42). Independents are splitting exactly evenly on this question at the moment (43/43).

(4) In spite of voters heavily labeling Republicans the more "extreme" and out-of-touch party, the GOP has opened small leads on the economy and overall governance. It seems economic data and the Obamacare meltdown are accruing to Republicans' advantage, even as these damaging crises roll on. Just imagine if the party had a popular, charismatic leader:

(5) On the shutdown/debt ceiling impasses, Republicans get more blame than Obama, but are still hanging in there. You can see, however, that the numbers have swung against them as time has passed:

Finally, I'll again direct you to these 2014 Senate polling numbers highlighted by Jim Geraghty.

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