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Tipsheet

Gallup: Romney 47, Obama 45

Remember when Obama had this thing sewn up two weeks ago, thanks to the phony "war on women"-created gender gap?  Look who's back in front, according to Gallup's latest national poll of registered voters:
 

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Note Romney's six-point lead among Independents.  This result confirms Fox News' survey from late last week, which also pegged Romney as narrowly ahead.  Requisite admonition: These numbers will bounce around a lot -- a lot -- between now and November.  Still, it's promising to see that the Romney camp's transition into the general election dynamic is off to a productive start.  I think Ace has it right -- we'll see all sorts of fluctuations and news cycle flares, but 2012 will ultimately hinge on a single question:
 

Obama can make this micro-issue the "Issue of the Media Day," and that diversion the Meme of the Week.  But when it comes down to it-- these are illusory victories. The real issue that all voters will face in November is this: Do I want to sign up for a repeat of the last four years or do I want a chance at something different?

The Reagan-Carter race was, according to the polls, fairly close until the end, when people finally stopped thinking about mere politics and started thinking about the real question: Do the last four years represent the best I think I can do? Am I getting full service on my checks? The answer was no then, and it will be "no" again.

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I'm not quite that confident about an Obama defeat, but I think he's eminently beatable.  Case in point: Democrats' latest desperate gambit is making a giant stink over Romney's supposed "secrecy," or something.  Their conference call to beat this horse earlier today was headlined by Chuck Schumer and Democratic Rep. Rob Andrews.  Yes, this Rob Andrews.  Allow me to make things easy for our friends across the aisle (paraphrasing Jim Geraghty): Mitt Romney is very rich.  He's paid a lot in taxes, and he's given even more to charity.  None of that will change a single thing about Obama's failed record, although if we're whining about transparency, maybe it's time to unseal some suppressed information about America's beloved incumbent.  How about it, guys?  I'll leave you with another delicious poll on this glorious Monday afternoon:
 

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin shows Gov. Scott Walker (R) leading each of his potential Democratic challengers in a recall election.  Walker leads Tom Barrett (D) 50% to 45% and tops Kathleen Falk (D) 50% to 43%.


For what it's worth, Falk is Big Labor's top choice, and that's a Democrat/Daily Kos poll.


UPDATE - Team Romney fires back at the "secrecy" meme, via spokesperson Andrea Saul:
 

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“It’s ironic the Obama campaign would accuse anyone of not being forthcoming on the same day a top official from President Obama’s scandal-plagued GSA is hiding behind the Fifth Amendment before a committee of Congress. President Obama cannot bear to face his own record of high unemployment, tax increases and massive debt.  No matter how hard President Obama tries to run from his record, Gov. Romney is going to continue talking about his plans to get the country back on the right track.”


Also, in the spirit of Katie’s book release, how about unsealing the files on Brian Terry’s murder?


UPDATE II - On Rasmussen's new Generic Congressional ballot survey, the GOP leads by tenBuffett Rule fever!

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