(1) Time's write-up of the polls doesn't even accurately reflect the actual results
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(2) As far as I could see, neither news outlet provides the poll's sample breakdown. If its D/R/I splits are reasonable and generally reflect the current political climate (ie, reflect lower Democratic turnout and enthusiasm than 2008), then Republicans on the short end of these surveys may have cause for concern. If, as we saw with the recent bogus California and Kentucky polls, the samples are unrealistically skewed toward Democrats, these results would be rendered meaningless. The fact is, we just can't reach either conclusion without a good look at the missing sample data.
(3) Other polls tell radically different stories. Various polling firms have polled all of these races within the last week or so, and CNN/Time's results stick out like a sore thumb. Rasmussen, for example, shows
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The ultimate poll doesn't happen until November 2nd, but in the meantime, we'll stay on the lookout for polls of all stripes. If they smell a little fishy to us, we'll tell you why. In this case, the CNN/Time polls reek.
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