Disclaimer: No one outside the Court knows what the Supremes are doing. Those who talk don't know, those who know don't talk. And no one can predict a case's outcome from oral arguments.
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Justice Sotomayor, who displayed some skepticism about the law during oral argument could win great points for intellectual independence by voting to strike down ObamaCare -- but the fallout from the liberal community would be so intense that my guess is she won't.
To my mind, the fact that Justice Kennedy authored the opinion that was largely favorable to The White House on the Arizona immigration statute is also a positive sign. Justice Kennedy cares greatly about his standing in the elite-liberal establishment, and I suspect he would go to great trouble to "balance" striking down ObamaCare with an opinion more likely to be palatable to The New York Times.
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