Shortly after polls closed in Washington State at 8 p.m. PST, a massive dump of more than 816,000 absentee votes put Biden and Sanders in a near tie.
816k vote dump in Washington - Biden/Sanders basically tied statewide. Only 805k votes cast total in the non-binding beauty contest primary that Clinton won last time. Obviously turnout will be way way higher
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) March 11, 2020
Third of Washington votes so far are for candidates no longer in race -- meaning that these are older votes. That Biden/Sanders are basically tied among these votes is probably a great sign for Biden given the growth in his support lately and as votes cast more recently come in https://t.co/W3qXf2GCzb
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) March 11, 2020
But as time went on, things narrowed between the two.
And @DecisionDeskHQ shows Sanders is in a narrow lead in Washington with 97% reporting. #SuperTuesday2 pic.twitter.com/4YtfUpcv6r
— Beth Baumann (@eb454) March 11, 2020
As Nate Cohn from the New York Times pointed out, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg had roughly 15 percent of the vote once those absentee ballots were counted, showing that people voted long before Super Tuesday.
The polls are closed in Washington, and this is going to be another slow, long mail count like we've seen in the other Western states.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 11, 2020
Usually, you'd say that the results will run from 'old' to 'young,' and move toward Sanders. But many ballots were cast before Super Tuesday, and it's possible that this demographic tendency will be canceled out by the shift toward Biden, like we've seen in CA. Just don't know.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 11, 2020
To that point, you can see that these first ballots have Bloomberg at 15%, which gives you an idea of how long ago they were cast. So that's a sign we might expect Biden to improve as the night goes on, at least https://t.co/iEnfUESHnr
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 11, 2020
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So we've basically got the whole ultra-early vote in Washington this point, and Sanders is up by two-tenths of a point. I'd guess that's not where Sanders would want to be, given where we've seen things break at this point in other states
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 11, 2020
Exit polls show how whites with and without a college degree felt about Biden and Sanders.
Washington state, per exit poll
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) March 11, 2020
White, no college degree
Biden 45%
Sanders 33%
Warren 9%
White, college+
Biden 42%
Sanders 26%
Warren 16%
[These two groups make up >80% of the WA Dem electorate]
The problem, however, is Washington State won't be called for days. That's because the state votes solely by mail.
Here's how things currently stand:
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