Pat Roberts Is Closing On Greg Orman - But Is It Too Late?

Posted: Oct 20, 2014 6:30 PM
Pat Roberts Is Closing On Greg Orman - But Is It Too Late?
A new poll out today from Monmouth University of likely voters in Kansas finds a dead heat between incumbent GOP Sen. Pat Roberts and independent-aligned Greg Orman at 46%-46%. The telephone poll surveyed 429 likely voters in Kansas and has a margin of error of 4.7%.

First, the good news: Pat Roberts has been struggling in this race and many polls have found him trailing Orman, so even a dead heat might mean he's gained some ground - and that his rhetoric that Orman is a progressive masquerading as a centrist might be taking hold. The other candidate/undecided vote looks to be breaking toward Roberts, as only 8% of those polled now say they're not committed to either Roberts or Orman.

The bad news, however, is that Orman still maintains a sizable lead over Roberts with self-identified independent voters - 60%-32%. The self-identified independent vote in Kansas is larger than the Democratic vote in Kansas, so Roberts' poor showing here is not good, especially considering that Romney won the independent vote handily in 2012 and Roberts won the independent vote by 5 points in his last election in 2008.

Townhall's PollTracker average, which takes into account all polling to date, finds Orman has a slight lead of two percentage points over Roberts: