Editor's Note: This piece was co-authored by Congresswoman Lisa McClain.
David Frum’s article entitled “The Worst Outcome” for The Atlantic (March 11, 2020 article) stated “if somebody other than Donald Trump were in the White House, the Coronavirus Crisis would not be unfolding this way … Trump’s actions have ensured the worst possible outcomes. The worst possible outcome for public health, the worst possible outcome for the American economy, the worst possible outcome for American global leadership.”
The media in general, and the Democratic Party highly supported Frum’s view giving it inertia throughout 2020 while creating a view of gross incompetence that certainly played a major role in Trump’s failure to be re-elected. We say many are warranted to criticize Trump for some of his rhetoric including us, but not for the results of much of his public policy, especially during the Coronavirus pandemic. Many Americans and Democratic politicians to this day, believe Frum was right all along. However, the data tells a largely different story. A story of successful Trump’s policies and their outcomes as well as the indomitable spirit and never say die attitude of Americans in general and the market economy in which we live.
Roughly a year ago, automobile companies were reallocating production capacity to produce face masks and ventilators. Truck drivers were driving through the night to ensure needed resources were available to consumers at all levels. Healthcare workers and the American healthcare system was stretched, but it never broke. And in the end, the American pharmaceutical industry partnering with government and competitors abroad, did the unthinkable, delivering a safe and efficacious vaccine nine months after Frum’s article and less than seven months from the launch of Operation Warp Speed – improving significantly on Dr. Fauci’s ambitious estimate of “a year to a year and a half”, which was near universally panned by vaccine and infectious disease experts as overly optimistic. Consider the following relative to Frum’s predictions:
GDP
At the end of Q1 2020, most economists anticipated a GDP decline of negative 6.5 percent for 2020 (among the worst in history if realized). However, a resilient U.S. economy realized extraordinary Real GDP growth of 33.4 percent for Q3 2020 with the economy achieving 4.3 percent real growth for Q4. Thanks to this remarkable second half recovery, the U.S. economy contracted only 3.4 percent in 2020. We believe that most recent federal spending is unnecessary and wasteful especially given the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) world economic update released in January 2021. Not only does it point out that U.S. GDP outpaced all advanced economies, Europe and the world in 2020, initially it called for the U.S. economy to be among the top performers again in 2021, achieving 5.1 percent Real GDP growth for the year with a recent IMF update now calling for more than 6 percent U.S. GDP growth in 2021. Clearly Trump’s policies set the stage for a V-shaped recovery in 2020 and set the table for robust growth in 2021.
Stock Market
The Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined to just above 18,000 by March 23, 2020, reaching its COVID recession low. A year later, on March 23, 2021, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had set an all-time record high and had picked up more than 14,000 points, closing the day at 32,599.29, up 75.34 percent. The S&P hit a record high as well, increasing 75.75 percent from its COVID recession low of March 2020. Finally, the high-tech laden NASDAQ has set numerous new highs, rising 94.13 percent as of March 23, 2021. Across the board, stock market growth has continued throughout April of 2021. We believe the strong rebound in U.S. stocks was due to the Trump tax and regulatory reforms began in 2017 and the impressive progress realized throughout 2020 relative to vaccine production.
COVID-19 Testing, Operation WARP Speed
As April 2021 comes to an end, the United States has conducted more than 425 million COVID-19 tests and distributed just over 290 million COVID-19 vaccines nationally, a herculean accomplishment compared to March 2020, where less than 1 million COVID-19 tests had been performed and Operation WARP Speed had yet to be conceived. One can probably criticize the Trump Administration for a slow start to COVID-19 testing. However, by the end of Trump’s administration we were the testing envy of the world. Operation Warp Speed was officially announced on May 15, 2020 and officially ended after 285 days by the Biden Administration on February 24, 2021. The vaccination of the elderly, emergency responders and healthcare workers began in December 2020 bolstered by the Trump Administration’s decision to secure 800 million doses of three different COVID-19 vaccines (another 100 million since, by Biden Administration). The vaccine dosages procured by President Trump are enough to inoculate every American adult and roughly 250 million non-Americans as well. Many medical experts believe the United States will reach herd immunity by June or July, with all who want to receive the vaccine able to do so, made possible in part by the Biden Administration’s improvements in the system to distribute vaccines. To be fair, most of the expected vaccine manufacturing glitches had been corrected by the time Biden took office and 1.5 million Americans were being inoculated daily. This accomplishment is especially noteworthy given our system’s “50 laboratories of democracy” approach that gave states decision-making power related to combating the pandemic. Numerous elderly deaths in states like New York can hardly be blamed on the Trump Administration.
COVID-19 Deaths: Home and Abroad
U.S. data shows that COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. vs. the original 12 members of the European Union (Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom) initially showed great promise relatively speaking, for the U.S. economy for June 2020. However, by September 2020, U.S. deaths were growing at a faster rate and much criticism was being heaped on U.S. COVID-19 testing and virus mitigation policies. It is interesting that as the end of April 2021 approaches, COVID-19 deaths adjusted for population, are once again close to being lower in the United States than the old EU. In hindsight, when you couple the loss of life with a much stronger performance of the U.S. economy, it is hard to understand why Trump’s policies were resoundingly criticized by the press – and at the ballot box in the fall of 2020, especially when compared to the original 12 members of the EU: In the first half of 2020 COVID-19 related deaths were higher overall and per capita among the original EU members; in the second half of 2020, U.S. deaths surged ahead on an overall and per capita basis. The trend began to decline in late 2020. At the end of April 2021, total EU Covid-19 related deaths are roughly 15,000 higher than the United States with U.S. vaccines administered at roughly 230 million, more than double the EU countries noted above, providing greater optimism for the U.S. moving forward.
Conclusion
Former Democratic Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Daniel Patrick Moynihan, once said, “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.” It seems that much of Mr. Frum’s and others’ criticisms of President Trump’s performance are not based in fact. They also fail to consider the indomitable spirit of America which is never helpless nor hopeless and has always overcome great challenges when the odds predicted it could not.
Lisa McClain is a member of the U.S. Congress representing Michigan’s 10th District and Timothy G. Nash is director of the McNair Center at Northwood University.
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