Although Donald Trump is firmly in the lead against Joe Biden in the key battleground state of North Carolina, new polling suggests that insurgent third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., is keeping the current president within striking distance of his predecessor - something which should have the Trump campaign’s attention with just nine months to go until Election Day. My organization, the League of American Workers, just completed our latest swing-state survey, using North Star Opinion Research to canvass 600 likely voters in the Tar Heel State with a sampling of even Republicans vs. Democrats, including leaners.
The topline result: Trump comfortably leads the field with 39%, Biden takes 32%, and RFK commands an impressive 16%, with an additional 10% undecided.
For anyone doubting that North Carolina is indeed a battleground state, recall that Trump only won there by 74,000 votes in 2020, and the current governor is a liberal Democrat.
Digging deeper into the issues and this polling data, two macro questions arise:
What explains this wide lead for Trump over Biden in North Carolina?
For those of us working to elect Trump, how can the movement appeal to the sizable bloc of RFK and undecided voters?
To the first point, the economy and immigration remain, far and away, the top two issues on the minds of battleground state voters, as our survey shows. On both these macro issues, Trump’s advantages shine over Biden.
Despite constant White House and media propaganda trying to spin the economy into some tale of Biden success, Americans know the harsh reality far too well, especially working-class citizens. On the economy, only 35% of North Carolinians approve of Biden and 61% disapprove. Among modest earners, with annual incomes under $50,000, only 13% strongly approve of Biden on the economy, while a whopping 50% strongly disapprove.
Young Americans generally do not own substantial assets, and therefore do not benefit from Biden’s inflationary policies that have pumped up asset values for the already-successful owners of stocks and real estate. So, perhaps not surprisingly, among 18–34 year-old young voters in North Carolina, a paltry 5% strongly approve of him on the economy, while 43% strongly disapprove.
Biden’s effectively open border proves nearly as unpopular in the state. Some of the liberal counties in North Carolina have implemented so-called “sanctuary” policies that shield illegal migrants from deportation by federal law enforcement, even harboring migrants who have committed egregious crimes while in North Carolina. Only 25% of voters there back this “sanctuary city” radicalism.
Perhaps these good law-abiding citizens are aware of some of the worst such abuses, such as Wake County, North Carolina, where the liberal sheriff refuses to cooperate with Immigrations and Customs Enforcement. In that area around the state capital of Raleigh, on a single day in March of 2022, 24 illegal aliens were arrested for sexual assault.
Given these factors, voters overwhelmingly prefer Trump on the macro issues of the economy and the border. But what about the RFK candidacy? Right now, our polling shows that Kennedy pulls roughly evenly from Republican and Democrat voters, winning over 9% of Trump 2020 voters and 13% of Biden 2020 voters in North Carolina.
Young voters rally to Kennedy, and he leads in North Carolina with 34% of the youth vote. Among independents, Kennedy comes close to Trump, with 31% in favor of the 45th president and 29% for RFK.
To stem any loss of support to RFK, and to win over Kennedy backers or leaners, Trump and his team must emphasize the economy. It is both Trump’s strongest value proposition and Kennedy’s most pronounced weakness. Kennedy admittedly makes some salient, patriotic populist points in his campaign.
For example, RFK is especially strong when highlighting the myriad abuses of big business and the Washington War Machine. But Kennedy is still, in reality, a leftist activist with zero experience in the real economy. As a trust-fund scion of a most notable family, he has spent his life in luxury derived from inheritances and donor capital. He provides no provable path to prosperity for the legions of working-class families currently suffering the ravages of Bidenomics.
In contrast, Trump can forcefully make the economic argument to America as the entrepreneur and builder who presided over an economic golden age as president before the pandemic. In fact, once Trump wins on the macro issues of the economy and immigration, Kennedy might prove to be a very useful aide in the second Trump administration, especially as a watchdog over the corrupted public health apparatuses of the federal government.
The voters of North Carolina grasp these realities and stand poised to deliver victory to Trump and to the America First movement. With some smart positioning between now and election day, that lead can grow even further.
Steve Cortes is former senior advisor to President Trump, former commentator for Fox News and CNN, and president of the League of American Workers, a populist right pro-laborer advocacy group.
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