Total defeat of Iran—meaning the complete collapse of the dictatorial theocratic system by a non-authoritarian order—is not likely to be achieved solely by external force against the regime.
Make no mistake, what has been accomplished from the combined June 2025 “Operation Midnight Hammer” and the latest “Operation Epic Fury” has been devastating for Iran:
the annihilation of Iran’s nuclear bomb production capabilities
the destruction of nearly all Iranian weapons manufacturing plants
the destruction and depletion of their ballistic missile stocks
the complete obliteration of the Iranian navy and air force
the destruction of Iran’s air defense radars and short-range missiles
the neutralization of Iranian proxies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis
As it stands, after two and a half weeks of Epic Fury attacks, the Iranian regime is fighting for survival, not victory. Still, while its total defeat is achievable now, it is not certain. The strategy and the next moves are all-important to assure success in ending the terror and death that ensued from the radical theocratic authoritarian rule installed in Iran 47 years ago. American and other external actors cannot impose democracy, but we can and must create space for the Iranian people to finish the job, bring the last of their oppressors to justice, and choose their new government.
In addition to continuing new targeting for incremental degradation of Iran’s military capability, the United States needs to empower and equip the Iranian people to lead a successful uprising against their oppressive government. That would include provisioning of vital communication tools and secure information operations, such as secure satellite internet—Starlink-type—devices with encrypted communication for coordinating the peoples’ activity during government crackdowns and the tumult leading to victory.
It is also time for the U.S. to ramp up pervasive information operations that undermine the Iranian regime and encourage security-force defections among both the IRGC and the larger regular Artesh military forces. Two inter-related themes are essential: 1) present evidence and proof of regime collapse; 2) present amnesty guarantees to any and all who lay down their arms.
Psychological warfare is equally or even more important, particularly to undermine the regime’s ideological and moral legitimacy. Some areas to target:
Broadcast evidence of corruption among clerics and IRGC internal economic empires.
Highlight the truth about wealth disparity. Average annual income in Iran is about $4500, while estimates for the personal and controlled wealth of the late Ayatollah Khamenei range from $100-200 billion.
Target the Supreme Leader succession crisis, which reveals the fragility and illegitimacy of Iran, when it lacks a unifying figure.
Highlight successful democratic and peaceful alternatives, such as pre-1979 Iran or neighboring countries such as Jordan and the United Arab Emirates
While wars always entail unpredictability, the window for a lasting favorable outcome is open precisely because the Islamic regime’s military and ideological pillars are fracturing simultaneously. The degradation of the regime’s military and coercive machinery is almost complete. Additionally, collapse of the Iranian regime is inevitable when the security forces realize the center cannot hold.
Now it is time to ramp up information and psychological warfare to end the regime’s legitimacy. We are also near the time for the U.S. and additional allies to supply the Iranian people with arms and firepower. The U.S. needs to coordinate locations for airdrops of a variety of effective weapons to assure that the Iranian people will deliver the final and total defeat of what remains of the Islamic theocracy.
In conclusion, the American people want an early off-ramp from Iran. And no one knows that desire and need better than President Trump, particularly with the U.S. mid-term elections looming on the horizon.
EU nations that depend on oil sourced inside the Strait of Hormuz have so far been reluctant to engage militarily. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has stated that it is “in our interest” to keep the strait open, while also acknowledging the EU bloc is discussing options. And with the UK and Denmark expressing openness to limited, non-escalatory military support in a broader coalition, the situation may be more fluid than the skeptics think.
The good news is that progress on neutralizing Iran militarily is ahead of schedule. Let us hope that even if we must proceed militarily to secure the Strait of Hormuz with only Israel’s support, the information and psychological warfare steps can be conducted with similar dispatch leading to a rapid outcome that 45+ years of prior negotiations, appeasement, sanctions, and one-off strikes failed to achieve.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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