Forecasts for the Weeks of December 29 and January 5

Peter Morici
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Posted: Dec 29, 2014 12:01 AM
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of December 29
December 29
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 9.5 10.5 9.5
December 30
Twenty City M/M 0.1% 0.0
Twenty City M/M - SA -0.8 0.3
Twenty City Y/Y 3.9 4.9
Consumer Confidence 93.5 88.7 93.0
December 31
Initial Unemployment Claims 285K 280 286
Chicago PMI 60.8 60.8 60.8
Pending Home Sale Index - November 103.8 104.1 104.6
January 1
January 2
PMI Manufacturing Index - December 54.0 54.8
ISM (Mfg) - December 57.3 58.7 57.5
ISM Prices 43.8 44.5 43.0
Construction Spending - November 0.0% 1.1 0.5
Week of January 5
January 5
Auto Sales* - December 17.11M 17.20 16.9
Car Sales 8.08 8.18
Truck Sales 9.03 9.03
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
January 6
PMI Services Index 53.0 53.6
ISM Services - December 58.0 59.3 58.2
ISM Prices 54.5 54.5
ISM Business Activity 64.4 64.0
Factory Orders - November -0.2% -0.7 0.3
Durable Goods Orders -0.7 -0.7
January 7
ADP Employment - December 205K 208 226
International Trade - November -$41.0B 43.4 -41.8
FMOC
January 8
Consumer Credit - November $15.0B 13.2 15.0
January 9
Nonfarm Payrolls - December 215K 321 240
Private 205 314 235
Manufacturing 7 28 15
Unemployment 5.8% 5.8 5.7
Average Workweek 0.2 0.4 0.2
Average Hourly Earnings 34.5HR 34.6 34.6
Wholesale Inventories - November 0.2% 0.4 0.2
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.