Forecasts for the Weeks of December 22 and January 5

Peter Morici
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Posted: Dec 22, 2014 12:01 AM
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
ForecastPrior ObservationConsensus
Week of December 22
December 22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - November0.250.140.23
Existing Home Sales - November5.220M5.2605.20
December 23
Durable Goods Sales - November2.0%0.33.1
GDP - Q3 (f)4.2%3.94.3
GDP Implicit Price Deflator1.41.41.4
Personal Income - November 0.6%0.20.5
Personal Spending0.60.20.5
PCE Price Index-0.10.1
Core PCE Price Index0.10.20.1
FHFA Housing Price Index- Oct0.3%0.00.2
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - December (r)93.893.893.0
New Home Sales - November 458K458460
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index647
December 24
Initial Unemployment Claims300299290
Week of December 29
December 29
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index9.510.5
December 30
S&P Case/Shiller Index - October
Twenty City M/M-0.6%0.0
Twenty City M/M - SA0.30.3
Twenty City Y/Y4.14.9
Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA
Consumer Confidence93.588.793.0
December 31
Chicago PMI60.860.860.6
Pending Home Sale Index - November104.1104.1105.1
January 2
PMI Manufacturing Index - December54.053.7
ISM (Mfg) - December57.558.757.9
ISM Prices43.544.543.0
Construction Spending - November0.0%1.10.4
Week of January 5
January 5
Auto Sales* - December17.04M17.2016.9
Car Sales8.018.18
Truck Sales9.039.03
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
January 6
ISM Services - December57.859.358.0
ISM Prices54.054.5
ISM Business Activity
Factory Orders - November0.4%-0.7
Durable Goods Orders 2.00.3
Nondurable Goods Orders -1.5
January 7
ADP Employment - December205K208240
International Trade - November-$41.0B43.4-42.0
January 8
Consumer Credit - November$14.8B13.215.0
January 9
Nonfarm Payrolls - December215K321243
Private205314240
Manufacturing528
Unemployment5.8%5.85.7
Average Workweek0.20.40.2
Average Hourly Earnings34.5HR34.634.6
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services
Wholesale Inventories - November0.2%0.40.3
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.