Forecasts for the Weeks of October 27 and November 3

Peter Morici
|
Posted: Oct 26, 2014 12:01 AM
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
ForecastForecastPrior ObservationConsensus
Week of October 27
October 27
Pending Home Sale Index - September105.1104.7105.6
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index810.87.5
October 28
Durable Goods Sales - September0.1%-18.20.9
S&P Case/Shiller Index - August
Twenty City M/M0.4%0.60.4
Twenty City M/M - SA0.1-0.50.1
Twenty City Y/Y5.86.75.8
Consumer Confidence86.586.086.8
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index10.014.010.0
October 29
FMOC
October 30
Initial Unemployment Claims283283280
GDP - Q3 (a)2.8%4.63.0
GDP Implicit Price Deflator1.42.11.4
October 31
Personal Income - September0.4%0.30.3
Personal Spending0.10.50.1
Employment Cost Index - Q30.4%0.70.5
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y2.02.0
Chicago PMI60.060.560.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - October (r)86.486.486.4
Week of November 3
November 3
Auto Sales* - October16.75M16.4416.60
Car Sales7.957.75
Truck Sales8.808.69
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
ISM (Mfg) - October56.656.656.8
ISM Prices5859.557

Construction Spending - September
.5%-0.80.5
November 4
Internation Trade - September-$41.6-40.1-40.0
Factory Orders - September0.2%-10.10.5
November 5
ADP Employment Report - October205K213220
ISM Services - October57.658.658.1
November 6
Initial Unemployment Claims
Productivity - Q3 (p)0.5%2.30.7
Unit Labor Costs1.5-0.1
November 7
Nonfarm Payrolls - October215K248233
Private205236225
Manufacturing548
Unemployment5.9%5.95.9
Average Workweek34.6HR34.634.6
Average Hourly Earnings0.2%0.00.2
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services
Consumer Credit - September$20.0B13.515.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (p)