Here are Professor Peter Morici's forecasts for upcoming economic data.
|
|
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
|
Week of July 28 |
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|
July 28 |
|||
|
Pending Home Sale Index - June |
103.3 |
103.9 |
104.2 |
|
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
13.0 |
11.4 |
12.0 |
|
July 29 |
|||
|
S&P Case/Shiller Index - May |
|||
|
Twenty City Y/Y |
9.9 |
10.8 |
9.9 |
|
Consumer Confidence - July |
85.5 |
85.2 |
85.5 |
|
July 30 |
|||
|
ADP Employment Report - July |
236K |
281 |
235 |
|
GDP - Q2 (a) |
2.7% |
-1.0 |
3.1 |
|
GDP Implicit Price Deflator |
1.8 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
|
July 31 |
|||
|
Initial Unemployment Claims |
300K |
284 |
305 |
|
Employment Cost Index - Q2 |
0.5% |
0.3 |
0.5 |
|
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y |
1.9 |
1.8 |
|
|
Chicago PMI - July |
63.3 |
62.6 |
63.2 |
|
Augsut 1 |
|||
|
Nonfarm Payrolls - July |
231K |
288 |
233 |
|
Private |
236 |
262 |
|
|
Core Private* |
196 |
218 |
|
|
Manufacturing |
16 |
16 |
15 |
|
Unemployment |
6.1% |
6.1 |
6.1 |
|
Average Workweek |
34.5HR |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services |
|||
|
Auto Sales* - July |
16.80M |
16.99 |
16.70 |
|
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
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|
Personal Income - June |
0.4% |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|
Personal Spending |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
|
PCE Price Index |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
Core PCE Price Index |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
Real Personal Spending |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
|
Markit PMI Manufacturing Index - July |
57.5 |
57.3 |
56.0 |
|
ISM (Mfg) - July |
55.7 |
55.3 |
56.0 |
|
ISM Prices |
59.5 |
58.0 |
59.0 |
|
Construction Spending - June |
0.5% |
0.1 |
0.5 |
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (r) |
81.7 |
81.3 |
81.5 |
|
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. |
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