A week ago, the GOP was hearing ‘dead man walking’ whispers from everyone, including those on their side of the aisle. The Virginia map, which gave Democrats a 10-1 advantage, passed via referendum. All Democrats had to do was follow history: no party in power rarely gains seats in a midterm election, with the notable recent exception being the 2002 midterms. But then the rule of law stepped in, and now the map looks quite different, dare I say, primed for an upset.
Like in sports, that’s why you play the games. Last year, no one thought the New York Knicks would beat the Boston Celtics, but they did so in six games. No one expected the 1999 Knicks to reach the NBA finals that year—they did it. No one gave the 2007 New York Giants a chance against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 42. We all know what happened there: the greatest upset in sports history. Anything can happen in the playoffs. Period.
In less than a week, we’ve gone from Democrats celebrating a blue wave that hasn’t yet materialized to them considering ways to pack the Supreme Court because they disliked a ruling. The Virginia Supreme Court invalidated that map over serious procedural violations under the state constitution. This news, combined with Louisiana v. Callais, which narrows the Voting Rights Act’s authority to create congressional maps based on race, has given southern states the green light to redraw their maps.
The House advantage shifted overnight. In many ways, the Republican Party had its best week in months last week. As Matt Gorman noted, yes, gas prices need to come down, and President Trump must work on boosting his approval ratings, but this wasn’t an excellent week for the GOP, which now seemed poised to pull off an upset.
WATCH: NBC's @MattGorman on the massive redistricting wins this week for the GOP...
— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) May 10, 2026
"[T]his is the best week President Trump and our party’s had probably all year. Indiana, Virginia, the jobs numbers, even the NRCC had some pretty good battleground polling coming out. I mean,… pic.twitter.com/kA0NEVr6jn
By 2030, Democrats may face structural hurdles that make it harder for them to win national elections. Their strongholds are losing electoral influence as the census reduces some House seats in Democratic-leaning areas. It’s reaching a point where Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—the blue wall—could become less crucial in the race to reach 270 electoral votes. This is partly why Democrats are eager to pass their maps regardless of obstacles, although most of their states are gerrymandered. Some face other issues, such as a lack of support among local Democrats and split chambers in state legislatures.
Meanwhile, Republicans sabotaging themselves, as they did in Indiana, could be an issue. Now is not the time to catch the panican virus, guys. Get these maps redrawn.
