The question in the title of this column is not an academic one. Next year’s presidential and congressional elections are crucial for the future of the United States. A Democratic sweep will continue to send the country into a moral and economic sewer from which it may never escape. The people of the Republican Party must consider this election very conscientiously and choose candidates who can win, at all levels, local, state, and national. A Republican president can at least block much of what a Democratic Party-controlled Congress could do.
There is a heady debate in the Republican Party right now about Mr. Trump’s chances to win next year. Read Townhall articles and comments to verify this. Let’s assume, for this article, that Mr. Trump will indeed be the Republican Party nominee next year. Barring something totally unexpected, he will receive at least 40 percent of the popular vote (remember “The 40-40-20 Rule” of presidential elections). How much higher he can go, and in what states, will determine whether he can be victorious. That is provided, of course, the Republican Party can limit Democratic Party cheating and stealing, not at all a given. But let’s also assume a relatively scandal-free election. Can Mr. Trump win?
Let me break down the electorate and try to determine Trump’s possibilities to regain the White House. Who, and what, is he facing?
1. Never Trumpers and RINOs. Never Trumpers and RINOs, of course, existed in 2016 and did not prevent Trump’s election. How significantly, if at all, have their numbers grown (especially the Never Trumpers)? It’s hard to tell. Are there enough of them to keep him out of the White House? That’s hard to determine, too. Probably not, if Trump can convince enough Independents (the remaining 20%) to vote for him. RINOs don’t like Trump, but most of them will probably support the nominee. Just like most of us non-RINOs will vote for whoever the Republican Party nominee is, even if he/she is more RINO than we would like. Almost any Republican would be better than any Democrat (that might exclude Cheneys and Romneys). The Never Trumpers do exist, and it will be virtually impossible for Mr. Trump to convert them. He can only hope their number isn’t too large.
2. The Republican Party base. This is the group that is the most divided about the eventual candidate. They are all loyal Republicans who want to win. Mr. Trump definitely has a very, very strong and loyal following, totally devoted to him, and a bit vituperative against their fellow base Republicans who currently don’t share their uber-enthusiasm for Trump. They are obviously convinced Mr. Trump can, indeed, win next year. Their number is huge in the Republican Party “base,” but may not be the majority. That, also, is difficult to decipher. There is actually a fear among some conservatives that this contingent will simply not vote if Trump is not the nominee. That would be foolish and hand the election to Democrats, but sometimes loyalty is greater than wisdom.
Other “base” Republicans will definitely vote for Trump if he is the nominee. The question is not, and never has been, will they vote for Trump. Of course they will. Every one of them voted for him in 2016 and 2020 and will do so in 2024 if he is the nominee. The issue is only...can Trump win next year? And there are many “base” Republicans who not only fear he cannot, but are absolutely convinced he cannot. So, they have thrown their support to Ron DeSantis or some other candidate. There is a significant percentage of this coterie of Republicans who believe that Mr. DeSantis would actually be a better President than Mr. Trump. They support DeSantis, not just because they don’t think Trump can win, but because they think he is the better man and has the best chance of defeating the Democratic candidate, whoever it might be. This division in the Republican base is not going away any time soon. Most of the Republican Party will unite behind whoever the candidate is. Will that be enough to secure victory? The “Trump can’t be elected” Republican base simply fear (or are convinced) that Mr. Trump’s character has alienated too many of the remaining 20 percent. That can’t be proven, of course, till November 2024.
3. The rest of the people. We must realize that there are many, many non-political Americans who just really don’t care much about the subject. A couple of weeks ago, I sent my aunt in Texas my substack URL (mklewis929.substack.com), where I publish religious and political material. She told me she wasn’t interested in the political stuff, but wanted to see my religious articles. She is, I am sure, representative of millions of Americans. Most will vote, however, and they are a problem for Mr. Trump. If Trump still has the indictments hanging over his head, they will hurt him with the “non-political” group. “Where there is smoke, there is fire. We don’t want a President who might be a criminal.” Right or wrong, they think that way. Mr. Trump would do well to clean out his indictments, if possible, as quickly as possible. His arrogant, “mean tweet” reputation will also hurt him with this group of Americans.
4. Mr. Trump’s best chance to win next year. That can be summed up in two words: Joe Biden. Biden has been such a horrible president that many Americans will hold their noses and turn back to Mr. Trump, if they are effectively reminded of how much better off the country was in Trump’s first three years in office. If the Democrats choose to nominate another candidate, then Biden’s record will hurt them, but may not be conclusive against them.
Can Trump win next year? Theoretically, of course, anything is possible. But given what he faces right now, his road back to Washington is a difficult one, to say the least.
Chek out my substack at mklewis929.substack.com for more articles and podcasts. Free signup. Read my western novels, Whitewater , River Bend, Return to River Bend, and Allie’s Dilemma all available on Amazon. You can follow me on Twitter: @thailandmkl. And rumble: lewandcou
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