Both Glenn Beck and four-star Air Force General Mike Minihan have recently said they believe America and China will be at war by 2025. Possible, but I’m not convinced. A “cold war” with China already exists, which the PRC is winning handily thanks to Joe Biden. There is currently no reason for Xi Jinping to risk a shooting war with America if he can win world dominance without it. He is, unlike Biden, preparing his military for war, just in case, but I don’t think a China-US war is in Xi’s foreseeable vision.
But, Taiwan is different. Will Xi invade Taiwan? Let’s consider that.
I’ll tell you this from studying Chinese history and living there for ten years—absolutely nobody knows what that tyrannical government will do. Except it will involve a lot of lying, cheating, stealing, and killing. That is communism, and not a little bit of Chinese culture and tradition. They would as soon stab you in the back as look at you. But I should say not everybody in China is like that.
However, while some perceptive analysts don’t think Xi will hazard a war with Taiwan, I do believe such an invasion is likely. America isn’t deterring him. If anybody thinks (a la Lindsey Graham) that American aid to Ukraine has kept Xi from invading Taiwan—well, that’s a joke. Xi Jinping does NOT fear Joe Biden. He laughs at him, like everybody else in the world.
If Xi does invade Taiwan, it won’t be driven by necessity, it will be sheer hubris. He may perceive his domination of Asia is somehow compromised by Taiwan’s independence. He can’t allow that. Taiwan will not rejoin China voluntarily. So, force will be necessary. But, when?
A priority for Xi is a Democrat being elected President in 2024, preferably Biden, but any weak, vapid Democrat will do. The Maoist Democrats are pro-China, especially Biden; why would Xi want a change? He doesn’t, believe me.
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How to guarantee a Biden/Democrat victory (beside hacking voting machines)? A Taiwan invasion might help. Biden has already said he would support Taiwan, and a “show of strength” could rally many undecided voters behind him. The timing is critical, however. Xi released the Wuhan virus (and I have absolutely no doubt he did it deliberately) at the optimum time to boost China. He was able to accomplish some major goals—e.g., the defeat of Trump, the oppression of Hong Kong, weakening Western economies—while the world was reeling over Covid. It worked, probably more brilliantly than even Xi expected. He might return to the same scheme—an end-of-the-year invasion of Taiwan. Merry Christmas, America.
American aid to Taiwan wouldn’t be decisive, but it would help—and drain more resources from America’s already flagging military and economy. That, and a Biden victory next year, would certainly cause glee in Beijing.
It is a gamble, though. If Biden looked bad, as he has so far in every foreign policy venture of his administration, it might swing the election against him. Incompetence in a China-Taiwan war, which is virtually a guarantee, could sting Biden. I have no doubt that Xi is considering that as well. My guess is that he would rather have Biden in Washington that Taiwan in his pocket. Taiwan will always be there to grab.
So Xi faces a dilemma. He needs a weak Biden (or Democrat) in order to invade Taiwan; yet, he wants Biden (Weak Democrat) in the White House beyond next year. Can he gamble waiting until 2025 to invade? Risky. The Republicans might recapture the Presidency next year. Can he invade this year? Better, but that could hurt Biden if the war was over (and Taiwan lost, even with American assistance) before the 2024 election. Xi must time his invasion very carefully, to ensure maximum advantage for himself and the CCP, always his optimal aim. That, and weakening America, which means a Biden in the White House. Look for the invasion late this year or by mid-2024, if it happens at all.
Xi is currently in an extremely strong position in China, even though the country faces significant financial issues. I will discuss this soon in some columns, but China is hurting financially. Wars are expensive. If Xi does hold off attacking Taiwan, it will be until he feels China is in a stronger financial situation. There is also the question of what will Japan and other east Asian countries do. They would probably help Taiwan, but again, not decisively. Nobody in Asia wants to anger China right now. Token help to save face is likely all Taiwan would get.
Frankly, and again, trying to guess what an inscrutable nation like China will do—and when—can be almost utter folly. It isn’t difficult to predict that the next thing Joe Biden says and does will be unbelievably stupid, decadent, and inept. But China doesn’t work that way. We do know they have a goal—to become the dominant nation in the world—and a plan how to get there—by diluting America as much as possible. That means Democrats in power. Regarding China, being more specific than that is perilous conjecture.
Only the enigmatic Chinese know for sure. What looks like it makes sense to us is probably the last thing they will do. From experience, I can tell you that Chinese bureaucrats and leaders do a lot of incredibly stupid things, too (communism doesn’t teach people to think for themselves). But one absolute about the Chinese exists—they cannot be trusted one inch.
So, my best prognostication is, yes, Xi will invade Taiwan, and he will do it before Biden leaves office, and at an optimum time to help Biden (and China, of course). If he doesn’t invade before the 2024 election, I suspect it will be because his finances are shaky, and he will hope for (and help) Biden win next year. That would give him four more years to play with.
Check for a lot more articles, as well as audio and video podcasts, on my substack: mklewis929.substack.com. Free signup. Read my western novels, Whitewater , River Bend, Return to River Bend, and Allie’s Dilemma all available on Amazon. You can follow me on Twitter: @thailandmkl. And rumble: lewandcou
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