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Countdown: Nine Months till the First Primary

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
AP Photo/Matt York

I’ve gone on record recently announcing my belief that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will both be renominated to their current positions in 2024.  It is a rare thing for a political party to remove a sitting President or Vice-President who seeks a second term.  It has happened five times to incumbent Presidents, but not since Chester Arthur in the 1880s, so never in the 20th/21st centuries.  Vice-Presidents have been a little more vulnerable to dismissal, but even then, it doesn’t occur often.  Neither Republicans nor Democrats are good at admitting mistakes.


So, as things now stand, I suspect the Biden-Harris ticket will be offered to America again in 2024.  This isn’t an absolute, of course.  Either could die or become gravely ill, or possibly, some serious country-wide disaster(s) could force the Democrats to remove the two incompetents largely responsible for the disaster(s).  The Biden administration has been one great big debacle, but the Democrats aren’t admitting that (yet), and they won’t replace him unless/until they do.  A collapsing dollar/recession could be a catalyst, but whether either develops quickly enough into a full-scale catastrophe remains to be seen.

Actually, it doesn’t matter who the Democrats nominate next year.  The radical, Marxist Left has total control of theparty now and will never allow any but one of their own at the top of the ticket.  Biden knows this, which is why he has surrendered to them in every, single particular. He wouldn’t survive politically otherwise.

Things are different in the Republican Party.  There exists a decided debate in the GOP, mainly between the Washington Establishment RINOs and the conservative base in the remainder of the country.  Mitch McConnell and the Republican Establishment hates Donald Trump and would prefer to see nearly any other Republican nominated next year.  The Republican base wants Trump or a strong conservative, and given the primary system, we do get a voice in the selection process, and Trump may well be the Republican candidate for the third successive time.  Ignore current polls. Nine months is an eternity in politics, and we’ll see if Trump can truly rumble, bumble, and stumble past the finish line in first place.


But a Trump nomination has created another slightfracture in the Republican Party, mainly among the “base.”  We conservatives probably agree on 95%+ of “policy issues,” but do not agree on who is the best candidate to implement them.  The OnlyTrumpers think that Trump MUST be the candidate, and haven’t been exactly friendly towards those who differ.  I’m not an OnlyTrumper; if he wins the Presidency again, I will be ecstatic, but like many other conservatives, I’m seriously concerned about Trump’s presidential electability.  I’m an “American Firster”—period—and I want the Republican Party to nominate a candidate who can win, preferably a committed conservative.  The country will be hard-pressed to recover from four more years of Biden, so I would rather have an other-than-Trump Republican (like DeSantis) than another Biden administration.  But saying that will make the OnlyTrumpers angry.  So be it.  I’ll do my own thinking, thank you.

But if it isn’t Trump, and if it isn’t Ron DeSantis, either, who will it be?  It DOES make a difference because the goals of the Washington Establishment RINO class and the goals of the Republican base vary greatly.  The RINOs want business as usual; you and I want America saved from business as usual.  We want Trump, or a Trump-like candidate.  The RINOs want an “anybody but Trump (or Trump-like) candidate.”  It is an enigma the Republican Party is going to have to patch up if it hopes to win the Presidency in 2024, not to mention the Senate and House of Representatives.


The Democrats don’t have that problem.  The Democratic Party “base,” the rank-and-file, everyday American Democrat, is becoming just as extreme as its leadership.  Those Democrats who are fed up with it, like Kyrsten Sinema and Tulsi Gabbard and a few others, are leaving the Party.  But they haven’t declared themselves MAGA Republicans yet, either, and I suspect they would prefer a different choice from either Biden or Trump.  Rightly or wrongly, they see Biden as driving people away from the Democratic Party, and see Trump doing the same to the GOP.  They may have a conundrum of their own to resolve next year.

So, the nominees will be whoever survives the Republican tussle versus (probably) Biden.  No “moderate”has a ghost of a chance of being nominated on the Democratic side. Indeed, are there any “moderates” in the Democratic Party, anywhere, in positions of power, all the way down to school boards?  Joe Manchin is sometimes mentioned, but he caves to the Left when necessary, and only makes moderate grunts because he is in a strongly Republican state and knows he would be toast next year if he goes full-bore Democrat.  Manchin is useless to America.

If not Biden, the Democratic name most often heard is Gavin Newsom, a man whom Donald Trump said “was always very nice,” and who he “used to get along with great.”  Please stop that, Mr. Trump, it is very annoying and off-putting (he did also add Newsom was terrible).  Quit schmoozing people who will NEVER support you.  Why do you have to say ANYTHING about the guy?  Newsom would certainly be acceptable to all Democrats.  And he would hasten the transformation of America into California.  Biden is working in that direction, too, of course.  Elect Newsom, look at California now, and you will see America in 10 years. Only worse.


Well, the election of Biden next year (or any other Democrat) will produce the same result.

The first primary is nine months away, in January.  The Democrats will again nominate Biden/Harris, or equally Far Left candidates.  The interest will be the battle in the Republican Party—if one ensues.  Somebody has to save the country from becoming the United States of Marxifornia. 

Check out my new Substack for articles and podcasts at  Free signup. My third Rob Conners western novel, Return to River Bend, is now available (Kindle version only). Purchase it, along with Whitewater and River Bend, on Amazon, B&N, and   Allie’s Dilemma is also available on Kindle only.   Also search YouTube “mark kevin lewis” for my Bible commentary videos.  


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