Let me tell you how wars work. The first report is always wrong and nobody knows nothing.
The battle in Ukraine seems to be one of the most covered and worst covered events in history. You cannot spend more than two minutes on social media without crossing paths with a snippet of shaky cell phone footage of a Russian tank burning or some heroic story of sturdy Ukrainian resistance. You have experts on TV trying to tell you what’s happening but no one is actually giving you any real information. Maybe you think the Ukrainians are winning, that their counterattacks are driving out the Russian invaders. There are plenty of sources saying 2800 or 5300 or some other oddly large and specific number of Russian soldiers are dead. All hail the coming victory!
Well, we’ll see.
Don't believe a damn thing you see or hear right now. I’d like to. I want the Ukrainians to win. But I understand that I, like you, am a target of information operations by Ukrainians, Russians, and even Americans. Get woke to it.
All that exciting footage? What do you know about where it was shot, or when? Nada. Zip. Zero. We’ve seen people trying to pass off simulator footage as real battle footage. We’ve seen explosions and fires without context. What caused them? Who knows when all you have is the label on the video? All those Russian tanks on fire? Well, guess what kind of equipment the Ukrainians use.
I don’t know if the Ukrainians are winning or losing, but I know that a lot of people in the media want them to win. So do I, but simply because I would prefer they send the Russkies packing does not mean that I am blind to what is an obvious and effective propaganda campaign designed to keep the West in Ukraine’s corner. And it has worked, with a few sketchy, wacky exceptions. I am impressed by the information operation designed to get resonant stories out there, like the defiant guardians of Snake Island, the “Ghost of Kyiv,” or that Ukrainian marine who was forced to blow himself up to take out the bridge. It’s like they were designed to appeal to us.
Let’s look at those stories. A remote island protected by a 13-soldier garrison is called upon to surrender but tells a Russian fleet to pound sand (well, technically to pound themselves) and they all die heroically. But luckily, the tape of the glorious exchange is not only available but is provided to the media. That’s pretty convenient. We have a compelling narrative that reinforces the image of brave Ukrainians defiant before the Bear, and we have proof that can be played, and it’s made quickly available to the world in a few hours. It’s a great story - almost too great. And it was – reports are the guys who gave their lives actually gave up and are still breathing.
From the beginning, I wondered why a couple warships decided they would focus their efforts on little Snake Island. Why bother? Those of us who were in the Cold War are familiar with Russian tactics - they tend to bypass strong points. Why would several ships, which presumably had better things to do, stop to take this glorified atoll? And why would they shell it into dust? That takes time (presumably the garrison had bunkers). Of course, the Russians had their own response - they showed some prisoners in Ukrainian uniforms and insisted that the defenders had actually hoisted the white flag. That could be a lie; it could all be a lie. We don’t know, but we do know this is an information operation by both sides to have an effect on us.
Remember the “Ghost of Kyiv?” That was the plucky fighter pilot who allegedly shot down several Russian fighters over the capital. Leave it to that dummy Adam Kinzinger to retweet an obvious photoshopped troll tweet about it. Still, the media was enamored with this supersonic stalwart. Except maybe it was not true. I have grave doubts a Ukrainian plane is going to survive multiple sorties within Russia’s integrated air defense umbrella. Moreover, the various jets we have seen shot down on video (to the extent they are real) sometimes get labeled “Russian” on one account and “Ukrainian” on another.
And then there is the heroic marine as the bridge. Maybe it happened, but then I’m not understanding how he came to not detonate it remotely. You would think that it occurred to the Ukrainians over the last couple months that maybe they need to prep the bridges on the main avenues of attack (everyone knows exactly where the Russians would have to come). It seems unlikely that a bunch of marines suddenly said “Hey, let’s rig this bridge - wait, someone’s got to stay on the bridge to push the plunger.” That’s not how it works (and it’s usually combat engineers, not sea soldiers, who blow up infrastructure). There’s plenty of reason to believe it’s not exactly, you know, true.
But maybe it is. I know a bit about Ukrainians and I could totally see one blowing a bridge while standing on it (especially after a goodbye swig of Hetman vodka, the best vodka I’ve ever had). And even if it is true in whole or part, the story did not get out there because it’s interesting. It got out there because you are supposed to see the iron will and determination of the Ukrainian people.
I have zero heartburn with Ukrainians running their information operation on us. They are doing a pretty good job of achieving their objective with it, and it seems to me that it was clearly planned out well in advance. But that does not mean that you need to let it affect you. Understand that you are being manipulated.
What is harder to understand it the truth. The whole fight is opaque, and it is hard to know whether the Russians are winning or running out of steam. The Russians’ objective was probably to make bold movements to smash Ukrainian formations and go hard to take or surround key objectives like the capital and then force a negotiated settlement that leaves a Putin puppet in charge. But they do not seem to be moving as fast as they probably hoped. Their first-rate forces would lead the attack, and if they are mauled then the follow-on forces are likely to be less capable. A stalemate short of taking the objections that Putin needs for leverage has to be his nightmare.
On the other hand, for all we know we could see a sudden and complete collapse of the Ukrainian Army formations. We hear that they are holding and even counterattacking, but we really do not know. We are watching this war through distorting lens that probably does not give us a real picture of what is happening. In the end, we will probably only find out the truth after it ends - if then.
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