A couple weeks ago, a lot of folks were channeling 1929 stockbrokers and crowding the ledges, poised to leap off into the void because the vibe was definitely that Donald Trump was finished. But you can’t take out the Jason Voorhees – and I mean that in the best possible way – of American politics. He keeps coming back to wreak his unholy vengeance, not upon sex-crazed teens but upon the garbage establishment.
Trump is back and this is a real race. I think we will win it.
Except all the polls are telling us Grandpa Badfinger is up +37, right? Weird how four years ago right now, we were hearing the exact same thing. Ignore the spinners who are solemnly informing you that your lying eyes are lying again and the 2016 polls were akshually very accurate. Baloney. A key component of effective gaslighting is plausibility, and I was there. You were there. All we heard in 2016 was how Trump was going down to a landslide defeat. Instead, everyone in the smart set got blindsided by the Trump Train.
And it can happen again.
Now, it doesn’t have to happen again. Nothing is written, and we have to fight for our victory. There are a lot of stupid people around – my district regularly re-e-elects Ted Lieu – and Oldfinger could build a Coalition of the Drooling to put him in the White House. But I think the Trump lightning will strike again.
Remember, the polls are the only data point in Biden’s favor. The only one. And as we have seen they screwed up last time and their proponents have an interest in them being bad for Trump.
But Kurt, the libs say, “You must hate science because the science of polling cannot be wrong! It’s science.” Yeah, but so is phrenology. The fact is that not only do the polls have a track record of failure with regard to populists like Trump – remember that they also missed a number of Senate seats that were supposed to spin down the drain with The Donald – but many of the pollsters are retained by media outlets with an anti-Trump agenda. If these very fine people in the media lie about everything, like the “very fine people” quote, why would you buy the notion that there’s some line they won’t cross when it comes to faking polls?
Am I saying they will push bullSchiff poll results to try to demoralize patriots? Yes, yes I am. You don’t have to just make up numbers – though I would not put it past them. You just tweak the turnout model and fiddle with the cross-tabs and voila! – CNN has its narrative. After all, it’s not like in the editorial offices they are saying “Sure, we’ll lie about Trump/ Russia, Trump/COVID, and Trump/Nickelback, and hey, there’s no way we’ll fake a poll! We have scruples.” They would sacrifice their babies to Baal if A) they hadn’t hit Planned Parenthood, and B) they thought it would ensure Trump loses.
But there’s more problems with the polls. First, they aren’t all awful for Trump. Some are showing Trump closer than the de rigueur double-digit numbers of the network pollsters. And the findings don’t make sense. You have tighter races in battleground states, but if Trump was behind Gropey J with -12, you’d see Biden taking Texas and Georgia and being carved into Mount Rushmore in the space where Trump will eventually be chiseled. But that’s not happening.
And if Trump is back that far, that means he lost a minimum of six to seven points to Biden from where he was against Felonia Milhous von Pantsuit. Let’s call that 15% of the contingent that voted for him last time, about one in six of us, saying, “Well, I voted for Trump in 2016 to stick it to the establishment, and after four years of him keeping his promise to stick it to the establishment, I am so angry with him for keeping his word to stick it to the establishment that I will vote for the mascot of Team Establishment.”
Here’s my question: Do you know a single person who went for Trump in 2016 but is now going for Biden? I know plenty going the other way, from not voting to voting for McMuffin to even voting for that wicked harridan who are voting for Trump in 2020. For months, I have looked for someone going the other way – and I’m a military guy so I want the ground truth - and I can’t find any. Oh, occasionally someone will tell me about his Uncle Bob who is mad because Trump tweets mean stuff, or someone’s boss who is a Jeb! RINO sissy and who would accept a packed Supreme Court if it meant that the Bad Orange Man would stop making urban cocktail parties uncomfortable. But that’s it.
I talk to a lot of folks. And I talk to many of them here deep in the blue. If there was a 15% shift, I’d probably notice. And so would you.
There is not a 15% shift – if anything, the shift is the other direction. Trump’s supporters are fanatically dedicated, eager to low crawl over a half-mile of shattered Coors bottles if that is what it takes to cast their vote for the president. In contrast, Biden rallies look like the shopping mall in Dawn of the Dead, which is apt since the guy handling his media events is apparently George Romero. Only the flesh-eating zombies had more pep than the Delaware Dementite’s fans.
Contrast that with Trump’s fans. Many of them are out and proud, Friends of Donald who are no longer on the down-low. Trump signs cover the rural regions. His big rallies rock. Supporters are spontaneously organizing car rallies, boat rallies, and the Amish are even doing buggy rallies. To rouse Biden’s bunch, you’d need a defibrillator.
Yet there are also shy Trump voters. Many of them are in the blue suburbs where a Trump sign gets some screeching harpy in your front yard wailing at you about your privilege. It can also get you fired. Their support is hidden, with at most secret handshakes indicating their position. These are the shy Trump voters who, once inside the voting booth, are free to vote “Kiss my Schumer” to the fascist libs with a vote for President Trump. Remember 2016? BREXIT? The “surprise” Australian and UK elections? Shy conservative voters are a thing.
The COVID hospitalization coverage hurt Trump, and that was the low point. The low point in 2016 came at about the same time – Access Hollywood. But Trump roared back then and he is roaring back now. Sure, there are a few Eeyores among the conservatives who will tell you that Trump is doomed, but most people in the biz don’t buy that. They know that the basics are all in Trump’s favor.
Incumbents tend to win.
The economy is improving.
We are not in any stupid new wars.
We’re confirming ACB.
And that desiccated old perv, when his handlers aren’t calling a 7 a.m. lid, is busy talking about how he is running for Senate, claiming he attended a black church that has no clue who he is, and forgetting Mitt Romney’s name.
Well, the last one is understandable. I sure as hell want to forget him and my 2012 vote.
Look, this is going to be a tough race. The entire establishment is using every tool it has, including lies and fraud, to regain the power we stripped from it. You know what you have to do – vote, and get others to vote.
If you do, we win.
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