If the 2020 election were held today President Donald Trump would win by a bigger margin than in 2016, carrying the most number of states since the Re-election of President Ronald Reagan.
I say this because like I did two years before Barack Obama was elected, I saw trends that added up to a significant win, I noted them in this column, and they occurred in near complete detail.
In 2016 with polls and every media pundit, and even many of his own supporters doubting the outcome of the election, I predicted the map that would match the election night result minus one western state and one congressional district in Maine.
As in those two cases I’m not claiming some sort of prescience. Rather I’m saying the momentum on the ground seems to tell us something different than perhaps what social media, old media, recent history or even traditional political logic would seem to indicate will happen.
It won’t come without a major amount of hard work. (Something then Candidate Trump demonstrated in 2016 in greater abundance all while spending far less money than his opponent.) But the signs point to an enormous win.
Here’s some of what I see:
17 of 30 above 50. The latest Gallup polling data released this week indicates perhaps the most telling reason. President Trump won 30 states on election night. President Trump’s approval rating on the day he was sworn into office was 45%. For perspective Presidents Obama, Clinton, & Reagan were at 47%, 46%, & 40% finishing up February of the third year. All of them cruised to re-election. Trump’s approval in Gallup is 44% and continues to hover around 50% in Rasmussen where he spent almost the entirety of February. But in Gallup’s most recent survey the key is where his strength is centered. The top 30 states where President Trump’s approval is the highest, mirror the 30 states he carried on election night. With the top 17 of those 30 sitting above 50%, exceeding 60% in more than one. Simply repeating wins in these 30 states insures victory.
(Final Election Map 2016)
16 of 20 below 40. A deeper look reveals room for growth in additional states. On election night Trump lost 20 states (a couple of them by lower margins than Hillary’s closest state losses.) Yet in only 16 of those 20 does his approval rating sit below the 40% threshold. Colorado and Minnesota sit at 39%. New Mexico at 38%. Surely Brad Parscale strategically understands that 7 additional states are within reach. He is likely already on the ground and on the web targeting those pro-jobs, pro-growth, pro-commonsense pockets and developing effective messaging to reach them.
(Gallup Polling’s Current Job Approval)
The Complicit Media. The media has already convinced themselves of the impossibility of a Trump re-election similarly to how they were popping corks on the Hillary Presidency in 2016. The inability to react to their free market which continues to give them lower ratings and smaller audiences at every turn seems to point to a delusional run at coverage for 2020 that will be worse—not better—than 2016. And the more they do, the more Trump wins. The President has outpaced all who have come before him in understanding how to actually make the media work for him. And in his term it has simply been to allow them to demonstrate their abject deranged bias, while he uses the power of rallies and Twitter to not just respond, but to direct and redirect the news cycle. They are in a sense his greatest ally—simply because their hatred and bias seem undeterred.
The Corrupt New Guard. One of the most interesting things about Trump’s approval ratings is that they occur largely in the most biased media environment in history. Another item of interest is the lack of clear leadership from the opposing party. In addition, the voices that are the loudest stemming from the Democrats (so much so that they have been universally embraced by every Democratic presidential hopeful to date) are the most out of touch with swing states. The Ocasio-Cortez-Omar-Tlaib nexus is a crossroads to out-of-touch that the Democrats may have long believed but would never be foolish enough to campaign on. Americans do not have $93 trillion dollars to put toward the New Green Deal. Most American cities would welcome 25,000 new jobs and $27 billion in new taxable revenues. Most Americans do not align themselves with dictators, defend groups aligned with terrorism, nor argue that former citizens that have joined terrorist groups be allowed back into America. New scandals have emerged concerning Ocasio-Cortez’ hypocrisy in jet travel and questionable residency in her district. Ocasio-Cortez and Tlaib have also both been implicated in questionable use of and laundering of donor money in payments to themselves or their boyfriend. Ocasio-Cortez is also prepping a hit list of democrats she will help primary in 2020 for the extreme offense of listening to their district as opposed to “her” in how they vote in the 2019 Congress.
The Known President. As a backdrop to the utter nonsense of the Democrats President Trump is demonstrating greater Presidential leadership than the media has ever indicated possible. Many fell into the meme that the Vietnam summit with the North Korean dictator would turn out to be like Obama’s extreme desperation in seeking the Iran deal. What actually happened was The President pulled a page from the Reagan playbook and walked out on a negotiation that he sensed was not productive. Many observers believe that the results will be similar: Reagan eventually disarmed Gorbachev. Trump may just disarm Kim. Additionally the domestic success of Trump policy has surpassed historic possibility. President Trump is having the transformational impact that President Obama so desperately wished he could have. More people of every race, sex, and background are working better jobs, making better wages, and living better lives than we’ve ever measured in history. The President is also making good on delivering a more secure border and in the process increasing his approval ratings with voters who The Democrats have long taken for granted.
The Unknown Candidate. Though we do not know who will face off against the President in the general election of 2020, some things are increasingly clear. They all represent a clear regression on the progress that the current administration has delivered. This is why they hope against hope that one of the many impeachment-priming committees will uncover something that both houses of Congress, multiple media outlets, and to date a broadly empowered Special Counsel have been unable to. The candidate will be forced to embrace socialism or face the wrath of the new hardliners on the left. And with California being such an early primary state in this cycle expect the wildest most extreme public policy positions to emerge. Hence it is important to remember that the “democrats” who vote in the general election in the entirety of the rust belt will have little in common with “The Democrat” who wins California’s presidential primary.
The Blue State, The Red Map. So how does he do it? With people like “@AOC” becoming every day faces (as well as the number two—only behind President Trump—influencer on social media) of The opposition party? Simple. The darker the hard blue states become, the easier it is for purple states to turn pink.
(If held today... what KMC believes would happen.)
The issue comes down to this:
With the President holding 90% of his base, and with his best approval ratings occurring in the 30 states he already won...
With Democrats holding Congress and the 13% approval rating that comes with it...
With Democrats watching 4-7 additional states beginning to slip through their fingers because of an improved economy, higher wages, better border security, and a long list of presidential promises kept...
With Democrats proposing ill-conceived non-solutions that show (according to analysts) only marginal climate alteration after they warn us that we will die in 12 years and a $93 trillion dollar price tag...
It appears (pretty convincingly) that President Trump will earn a second term.
And given the options, more people in more states seem to be coming to the same conclusion.