1. Obama's connection with the Reverend Jeremiah Wright makes him unelectable in the general election, even though neither he nor most of the pundits seem to have recognized this yet. Obama continues to campaign as if he is still viable. The mainstream media continues to cover him as if he was still viable. In reality, Obama’s candidacy is seriously imperilled, and Hillary Clinton—yes Hillary Clinton!—is the strongest Democratic candidate left in the race.
2. John McCain is the strongest candidate the Republicans could have nominated. This is not to say he is the perfect candidate. He is not conservative across the board, although he is conservative on the things that matter the most. He is a bit too old, and it shows. Still, he has the best chance of winning out of the GOP field. The irony is that if it were left up to the right-wing pundits, they would have chosen Mitt Romney.
3. Romney would have gone down to disastrous defeat, the worst since Barry Goldwater in 1964. Romney’s problem is that not even conservatives were unified behind him. His Mormonism would have been a serious problem for many Americans, including evangelical Christians who are part of the GOP base. Fortunately the Republican rank-and-file voters were smarter than the pundits. They chose the candidate with the best chance of winning independents and even some Democrats.
4. If Obama is the nominee, this is the GOP campaign commercials I envision. It begins by showing the rantings of Wright: America deserved to be attacked on 9/11, the government sponsors the Ku Klux Klan, AIDS is a federal plot, God damn America! These images are ccompanied by a voice-over noting that Wright is Obama's longtime mentor, and that Obama has attended this church for two decades. Then we see Obama saying he will no more disavow Wright than he would disavow a family member. Finalloy we see pictures of the two men embracing while a voice says, “Is this the man who is going to bring America together and stand up to our enemies?” At this point, it's done!
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5. Even though Democratic super-delegates may soon realize that Hillary is their best hope for the general election, they will not dare to over-ride Obama's delegate lead and his popular vote lead. The reason is that political correctness is simply too strong in the Democratic party. Notice that Hillary has not condemned Obama for his association with Wright. Nor has she called him an irresponsible leftist. She is reduced to making bogus arguments against Obama, such as the charge that he would not be able to handle phone calls at three in the morning.
6. If the super-delegates do give it to Hillary, they will be denounced for using smoke-filled rooms to deny the first serious black presidential candidate his deserved opportunity. In addition to facing charges of subverting the democratic process, they will face widespread accusations of racism. Undoubtedly they will have to deal with massive discontent among the Democratic party's most loyal constituency, African Americans. Riots are not out of the question! The super-delegates recognize this, which is why I think they will feel compelled to go with Obama if he is the delegate and vote leader.
7. Still, Hillary is counting on those super-delegates. At this point, it seems the only way Hillary can win the Democratic nomination is by cajoling, threatening and seducing the super-delegates. It’s hard to see any other scenario in which Hillary could emerge as the nominee. The Florida and Michigan votes seem out of the picture, and even decisive victories from here on out make it unlikely that Hillary will overtake Obama. Female super-delegates may already be getting “Hi there” phone calls from Bill Clinton, who is still regarded as charming in certain Democratic quarters.
8. If by some miracle Hillary could draw even with Obama in delegates and surpass him in the popular vote, then her nomination would be perceived as deserved. In this case I think Obama would probably be willing to serve as her running mate. It’s still a big step up from first-term senator. But if Hillary gets the nod despite Obama's delegate and popular vote lead, Obama will almost surely be too disgusted to play second-fiddle.
9. Under no circumstances do I see Hillary being willing to serve as Obama's running mate. I suspect she would rather get out of the race and wait for another opportunity, even though such an opportunity doesn’t always come twice. Al Gore, John Kerry and John Edwards are walking illustrations of that point. Hillary may recognize the prudential wisdom of serving as Obama’s vice presidential candidate, and at the same time megalomaniacal self-pride might force her to refuse the invitation.
10. If Hillary does serve as Obama's running mate, and Obama is elected president, the man should get double security! The word among Democratic cognoscenti is that the Clintons would stop at nothing to get back into the White House.
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