It’s been a heck of a year for the stock market; however, I think it’s just getting started. Right now, Dow futures are up 228 points. There’s a good chance that the index will smash through 26,000 while shattering the record for the fastest 1,000-point move in the process.
As we approach earnings season, there is a tremendous excitement about results, and more importantly, guidance. After a decided move lower, corporate earnings are gaining strength as each quarter gathers additional strength.
It’s not only the new tax rates that have investors optimistic, but it’s also a groundswell of excitement about the economy. In fact, it’s for all the talk about whoever gets credit for the economic revival in this country; according to Quinnipiac Polling, folks are saying the “Nation’s Economy is Excellent.” The economy recently took off like a rocket to 18% this month from just 2% in December 2016.
The best barometer of optimism (and this isn’t just a feeling I have) is the top line of the income statement. After a major lull in year-to-year growth, revenues have begun to take off; I’m looking for this to continue.
According to FactSet Data, the Street already had high expectations for revenue and earnings growth, but I think these numbers are far too low:
- For Q1 2018: analysts are projecting an earnings growth of 14.1% and a revenue growth of 7.1%
- For Q2 2018: analysts are projecting an earnings growth of 13.9% and a revenue growth of 7.0%
- For Q3 2018: analysts are projecting an earnings growth of 15.2% and a revenue growth of 5.8%
- For Q4 2018: analysts are projecting an earnings growth of 15.1% and a revenue growth of 4.5%
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For all of 2018, analysts are projecting an earnings growth of 14.7% and a revenue growth of 5.9%.
With this being said, stop fretting about an eventual pullback. Consider the fact that the economy has moved from a survival-and-recovery mode to a growth mode (a condition that feeds itself and doesn’t disappear overnight -- neither should this rally).
Today’s Session
The Dow is poised to surge out of the gate as blue chip stocks snare the spotlight from technology on strong earnings news from United Healthcare (UNH) and a Phase III approval for a lung cancer treatment at Merck (MRK).
I’ve been writing about panic buying, but don’t confuse that with irrational buying. A green light is going off among professional investors that have been too smart or too cute to catch this wave. It’s time they do right by the folks they are charging 2 and 20 percent. On that note, many of this morning’s Wall Street upgrades are to neutral from sell. In other words, a reluctance to admit they missed it, but they are trying to erase the embarrassment from the record.
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