Manufacturing Renaissance...Delayed

It’s always about jobs; this year, it seems to be all about manufacturing jobs, but that’s been the case during presidential elections for a long time. Remember, President Obama promised a manufacturing renaissance. Well, that hasn’t happened; in fact, as of June, there were 12,296,000 manufacturing jobs in America, up from 12,208,000 when the president was sworn in…a grand total increase of 88,000.

Automation & Robots

 The decline in manufacturing jobs didn’t begin with President Obama. It has been in place for almost five decades (peaked in May 1979).  Moreover, a certain degree of those job losses came from automation and not outsourcing, hence the sharp rebound in manufacturing output, which is up 25% from the first quarter of 2009, and near its all-time high level.

This trend will actually become more impactful in the years ahead as the technology curve has turned sharply.

Election Implications

Of course, that kind of talk doesn’t matter to voters who are looking to bring back the good old days of blue-collar jobs that not only paid good money, but also were the envy of the rest of the world.  In key swing states, one of the central issues will be manufacturing jobs; and many think those that can convince voters in the Rust Belt they can deliver jobs will win.

Surprisingly, there are more manufacturing jobs in three swing states since President Obama was sworn in and one is a wash.  Ironically, at the moment, Hillary Clinton is winning in Rust Belt states that have lost jobs (according to Real Clear Politics).

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• HRC: WI +5.6%, OH +0.8%, MI +5.2%, PA +5.0% and IL +25.0%
• DJT: IN +7.0%

These days, manufacturing jobs haven’t gained traction. In fact, the last back-to-back month gains occurred last year when its momentum began in September. This will be a critical component on Friday when the jobs numbers are released.