So, the market posted a pretty impressive rally Monday without any visible catalyst other than perhaps Warren Buffett saying the economy, and market, would be okay with a president Clinton or Trump. (For the record, he is a huge Hillary fan, but I guess he won’t leave the country if the presumptive GOP candidate wins the general.) The soaring Yen didn’t hurt the market yesterday, even though it’s been correlated with big down days in the US equity market. Maybe, the surging Euro offset that relationship.
Overnight, Australia’s central bank lowered interest rates to a record low 1.75%, bucking the trend of the Fed, ECB and BOJ.
One beneficiary of the weaker dollar is gold, which is finally reacting to all that easy money after years of global central banks money-printing and schemes. Gold smashed through $1,300 an ounce, and it has a relatively clear shot to $1,400.
Of course, if gold is only just now beginning to react to central bank shenanigans, the question is why and what does it mean for the equity market?
The answer is there is concern these central banks have no more juice. Not just gimmicks, or the ability to print, but also credibility. It’s a real concern, and without a doubt, it’s reflected in recent jitters. Those jitters are weighing on the market this morning, but that’s also natural during any jobs week. That higher angst ahead of a job’s report matters more and more to the rally.
Looks like the market will give up all of yesterday’s gains at the open. Meanwhile, there have been some positive earnings developments. While the names moving higher, like Vulcan Materials (VMC), aren’t bellwether stocks, their industries are critical to any eventual full-fledged rebound.